The Russian DQs from Sochi

For those of you keeping score at home, here are the 19 Russians disqualified from the Sochi Winter Olympics to date, listing, in order: name, gender, sport, event(s), place(s), medal(s) (if any), violation details, source, and date.

  • Aleksandr Legkov; M; CCS; 50K / Skiathlon / 4x10relay; 1 / 10 / 2; Gold/Silver; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 1 Nov 2017
  • Yevgeny Belov; M; CCS; 15K / Skiathlon; 25 / 18; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 1 Nov 2017
  • Maksim Vylegzhanin; M; CCS; 50K / Skiathlon / Team sprint / 4x10relay; 2 / 4 / 2 / 2; Silverx3; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Aleksey Petukhov; M; CCS; Sprint; 8; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Yuliya Ivanova; F; CCS; 10K / 30K / 4x5relay / Team sprint; 17 / 30 / 6 / 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Yevgeniya Shapovalova; F; CCS; Sprint; 28; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Tretyakov; M; SKE; Skeleton; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Yelena Nikitina; F; SKE; Skeleton; 3; Bronze; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Olga Potylitsyna; F; SKE; Skeleton; 5; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Mariya Orlova; F; SKE; Skeleton; 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Zubkov; M; BOB; 2-man / 4-man; 1 / 1; Goldx2; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Stulneva; F; BOB; 2-man; 9; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Rumyantsev; M; SSK; 5K / Pursuit; 11 / 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Fatkulina; F; SSK; 500 / 1000 / 1500; 2 / 4 / 9; Silver; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Vilukina; F; BIA; 7.5 / Pursuit / 12.5 / Relay / Mixed Relay; 2 / 7 / 21 / 2 / 4; Silverx2; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Yana Romanova; F; BIA; 7.5 / Pursuit / 15 / Relay; 19 / 23 / 53 / 2; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Dmitry Trunenkov; M; BOB; 4-man; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Aleksey Negodaylo; M; BOB; 4-man; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Sergey Chudinov; M; SKE; Skeleton; 5; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017

The Sochi Medal Table Revisited – Redux#2

Another day, another dollar. Well, Russia does not like the US dollar so, for them, another day, another 5 Russian doping disqualifications from the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Please see details in my previous two posts on this topic for information about the two medal ranking systems – http://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/ and http://olympstats.com/2017/11/24/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited-redux-1/

Here is what has happened to the first 10 places in the Sochi medal standings, as of today:

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
23-Feb-14 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
23-Feb-14 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
23-Feb-14 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
23-Feb-14 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
23-Feb-14 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

As of 27 November, Russia has dropped from 1st to 5th (US system) and 4th (International system).

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
27-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 3
27-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 2 1
27-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
27-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 4 5
27-Nov-17 RUS 9 5 8 22 5 4
27-Nov-17 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
27-Nov-17 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
27-Nov-17 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
27-Nov-17 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
27-Nov-17 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

Again, please refer to my earlier posts, but here is what happens with perfect re-allocation, i.e., everybody in 4th moves up to bronze, bronze medalists move up to silver, etc. This is an idealized situation and very unlikely to happen in every case. If it did, Russia would actually move up to 2 bronze medals they did not receive originally. I sincerely doubt the IOC would allow that to happen, given the situation.

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 7 11 29 1 1
Possible USA 9 10 10 29 2 4
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
Possible RUS 10 5 9 24 4 3
Possible NED 8 8 8 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 7 2 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 3 10 11 12
Possible CZE 2 4 3 9 12 15
Possible ITA 0 2 7 9 13 22
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 14 13
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 15 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 16 17
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
Possible LAT 2 0 3 5 20 23
Possible GBR 1 1 2 4 21 19
Possible AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
Possible UKR 1 1 0 2 23 20
Possible SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
Possible CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
Possible KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

More to come, surely.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited – Redux #1

Aleksandr Zubkov, Russian bobsledder who won gold medals in both bobsled events in Sochi, was just disqualified, along with Olga Fatkulina, who won a silver medal in women’s 500 metre speed skating.

How does this affect the Sochi medal tables? See our post of two days ago on the topic of the changes in the Sochi medal table – http://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/.

Here is what happens now, and I’m only going to list the top 5 nations in the first 2 tables, as there are no changes below that level.

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5

With the new disqualifications today, here is what happens.

By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Norway in 2nd, Canada and 3rd, and Russia dropping to 4th. By the International system, now the rankings change quite a bit, with Norway in 1st, Canada in 2nd, the USA in 3rd, and Russia dropping from 1st to 4th. For an explanation of the two ranking systems, see yesterday’s post (noted above).

Please also note that the team disqualifications in bobsled are not automatic, as @OlympicStatman pointed out in a series of tweets, because of IBSF rules.

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
22-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 3
22-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 2 1
22-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
22-Nov-17 RUS 9 7 8 24 4 4
22-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5

Now as we did 2 days ago, we’ll show you what happens if all medals are re-allocated, i.e., 4th moves up to 3rd, etc. As stated 2 days ago, there will be appeals, and it will take awhile and there is no guarantee all these medals will be re-allocated, but this is what it could look like. Here we go down to 19th/17th place since Latvia would move up in 4-man bobsled and is affected. Here, Russia actually stays in 3rd in both systems, because it could theoretically move up to a bronze medal in 4-man bobsled, after the Zubkov team disqualification, although that may be a stretch (they are also being investigated, it is rumored).

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 6 12 29 1 1
Possible USA 9 10 10 29 2 4
Possible RUS 10 7 9 26 3 3
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 4 2
Possible NED 8 8 8 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 7 2 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 3 10 11 12
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
Possible CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 15 18
Possible ITA 0 2 6 8 16 23
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible LAT 2 0 3 5 19 17

As we said yesterday, there is certainly still more to come.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited

This morning the IOC announced the disqualification of four Russian skeleton sliders from the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. In the process Russia lost 2 more medals from Sochi – gold in the men’s (Aleksandr Tretyakov) and bronze in the women’s (Yelena Nikitina). The Russians had previously had 6 cross-country skiers disqualified from Sochi and lost 4 medals in the process.

Multiple tweets have appeared since stating that the US now moves up to the top of the Sochi medal table. Other tweets have said that USA slider Katie Uehlander will now move up to a bronze medal in women’s skeleton, and that Latvia’s sliding brothers, Martins and Tomass Dukurs, will move up to gold and bronze medals and become the 7th siblings to be “on the podium” in an individual Winter Olympic event.

As Lee Corso likes to say on College GameDay, “Not so fast, my friends.” It’s way more complex than all that.

First of all, it is true that 10 Russians have been tentatively disqualified from Sochi, and if the disqualifications stand, they have lost 6 medals – 2 gold, 3 silvers, and a bronze. However, several of the athletes have already appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), and that process will take months. So it is possible several of the DQs could be reversed, although I personally doubt that.

Secondly, if the disqualifications stand, medals could be upgraded but that also takes time and review by the IOC. It is not automatic. Katie Uehlander could move up to a bronze medal, that is true, but the process needs to run its course.

Thirdly, in one sense, as of today, the US is now on top of the Sochi medal table, but in another sense, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table. How’s that again?

There are two systems for ranking national medals – the US or North American system that ranks by medals, gold, silver, and bronze; and the European or International system that ranks by gold, silver, and bronze. By the US/NA system, as of today, the USA does lead the Sochi medal table, but by the Euro/Inter. system Russia still leads the Sochi medal table today.

Here is the original Sochi medal table on 23 February 2014, the last day of the 2014 Winter Olympics, with Russia leading the table by either ranking system. The USA is in second by the US system, and Norway is in second by the International system, with the USA 4th in that system, still trailing Canada.

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
23-Feb-14 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
23-Feb-14 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
23-Feb-14 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
23-Feb-14 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
23-Feb-14 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
23-Feb-14 CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
23-Feb-14 KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
23-Feb-14 CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
23-Feb-14 SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
23-Feb-14 JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
23-Feb-14 ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22
23-Feb-14 BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8
23-Feb-14 POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
23-Feb-14 FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
23-Feb-14 GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19
23-Feb-14 LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23
23-Feb-14 AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
23-Feb-14 UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20
23-Feb-14 SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
23-Feb-14 CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
23-Feb-14 KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Assuming all the disqualifications are upheld, here is what the Sochi medal table looks like today. By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Russia, despite losing 6 medals, and Norway in 3rd. By the International system, there is no actual change in the rankings with Russia still #1, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th.

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
22-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 4
22-Nov-17 RUS 11 8 8 27 2 1
22-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
22-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
22-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
22-Nov-17 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
22-Nov-17 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
22-Nov-17 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
22-Nov-17 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
22-Nov-17 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
22-Nov-17 CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
22-Nov-17 KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
22-Nov-17 CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
22-Nov-17 SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
22-Nov-17 JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
22-Nov-17 ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22
22-Nov-17 BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8
22-Nov-17 POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
22-Nov-17 FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
22-Nov-17 GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19
22-Nov-17 LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23
22-Nov-17 AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
22-Nov-17 UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20
22-Nov-17 SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
22-Nov-17 CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
22-Nov-17 KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Now you ask, what happens if all the medals are re-allocated, by moving up the 4th place finisher to 3rd and a bronze medal, etc.? I hate to go there, but will do so, just because you’re such nice guys. Here is what the current “possible” rankings will look like if this occurs, and I am moving up everybody, although I doubt that will actually happen.

Norway now leads by the USA system, with the USA 2nd, and Russia 3rd. By the international system, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th – no change from the original standings.

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 6 12 29 1 2
Possible USA 9 8 12 29 2 4
Possible RUS 12 8 7 27 3 1
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
Possible NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
Possible CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
Possible ITA 0 2 6 8 16 23
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
Possible LAT 1 1 3 5 20 19
Possible GBR 1 1 2 4 21 20
Possible AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
Possible UKR 1 0 1 2 23 21
Possible SVK 1 0 0 1 24 22
Possible CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
Possible KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

It is unlikely this will happen that way in every case, so this is an idealized situation. For this to occur, the 3rd-place finisher in the 50 km cross-country would move up to a gold medal, but that is another Russian, Ilya Chernousov. I doubt he will be moved up, given the opprobrium surrounding the Russian team in Sochi. If he is not advanced, then Norway’s Martin Johnsrud Sundby, who originally finished 4th in that event, cannot move up to the silver medal.

And to further complicate matters, Sundby had a doping violation revealed in January 2015, and after appeals, was banned from sport for 2 months (it was only an asthma inhaler) in July 2016, after an appeal to CAS. It is unlikely the IOC would move up an athlete since disqualified for doping.

So there you have it. Much more complicated than you might think. And there is certainly more to come.