All posts by bmallon

Sochi Medal Updates #4

This week the IOC disqualified 12 more Russian Winter Olympians from the Sochi 2014 Games – Aleksey Voyevoda (BOB) on Monday, 18 December, and then yesterday, 11 more athletes were disqualified. This brings to 43 the number of Russians disqualified from Sochi since 1 November by the Oswald Commission findings. In all, 44 Russians have been disqualified from Sochi as Aleksandr Loginov (BIA) was DQed back in 2014.

Sonny and Cher once sang “The Beat Goes On” and Emerson, Lake & Palmer implored us to “Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends.” But we think this ends it. The IOC examined 46 cases which was the number they said they had on their docket – exonerating 3 athletes and disqualifying 43. So, hopefully, we can summarize the “final” results of the medal standings from Sochi.

Here are the original medal standings from Sochi, again listing the NOC ranks by the US method (Medals-Gold-Silver-Bronze) and the European/International method (Gold-Silver-Bronze).

Original

NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk

23-Feb-14

RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1

23-Feb-14

USA 9 7 12 28 2 4

23-Feb-14

NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2

23-Feb-14

CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3

23-Feb-14

NED 8 7 9 24 5 5

23-Feb-14

GER 8 6 5 19 6 6

23-Feb-14

AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9

23-Feb-14

FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10

23-Feb-14

SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14

23-Feb-14

SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

23-Feb-14

CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12

23-Feb-14

KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13

23-Feb-14

CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15

23-Feb-14

SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16

23-Feb-14

JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17

23-Feb-14

ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22

23-Feb-14

BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8

23-Feb-14

POL 4 1 1 6 18 11

23-Feb-14

FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18

23-Feb-14

GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19

23-Feb-14

LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23

23-Feb-14

AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24

23-Feb-14

UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20

23-Feb-14

SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21

23-Feb-14

CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25

23-Feb-14

KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

And here is what the medals and standings look like today. The Russians have lost 4 gold medals, 8 silver, and 1 bronze medal, and dropped from 1st in the medal standings (both systems), to either 4th or 5th, depending on the system you favor.

Current

NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk

23-Dec-17

USA 9 7 12 28 1 3

23-Dec-17

NOR 11 5 10 26 2 1

23-Dec-17

CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2

23-Dec-17

NED 8 7 9 24 4 5

23-Dec-17

RUS 9 3 8 20 5 4

23-Dec-17

GER 8 6 5 19 6 6

23-Dec-17

AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9

23-Dec-17

FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10

23-Dec-17

SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14

23-Dec-17

SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

23-Dec-17

CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12

23-Dec-17

KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13

23-Dec-17

CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15

23-Dec-17

SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16

23-Dec-17

JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17

23-Dec-17

ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22

23-Dec-17

BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8

23-Dec-17

POL 4 1 1 6 18 11

23-Dec-17

FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18

23-Dec-17

GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19

23-Dec-17

LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23

23-Dec-17

AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24

23-Dec-17

UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20

23-Dec-17

SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21

23-Dec-17

CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25

23-Dec-17

KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Now, everyone asks who will get the re-allocated medals. As noted in previous posts, medal re-allocations are not automatic and take some time as the appeal goes thru CAS (it is virtually always denied) and then the IOC makes a decision about upgrades. In a perfect world, where everyone is automatically upgraded to the next higher position, after a disqualification, this is what the medal tables would look like.

Possible

NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk

Possible

NOR 11 7 11 29 1 1

Possible

USA 9 10 10 29 2 4

Possible

CAN 10 10 6 26 3 2

Possible

NED 8 8 8 24 4 5

Possible

RUS 10 3 7 20 5 3

Possible

GER 8 6 6 20 6 6

Possible

AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9

Possible

FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10

Possible

SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14

Possible

SUI 7 2 2 11 10 7

Possible

CHN 3 4 3 10 11 12

Possible

CZE 2 4 3 9 12 15

Possible

ITA 0 3 6 9 13 23

Possible

KOR 3 3 2 8 14 13

Possible

SLO 2 2 4 8 15 16

Possible

JPN 1 4 3 8 16 18

Possible

BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8

Possible

POL 4 1 1 6 18 11

Possible

LAT 2 1 3 6 19 17

Possible

FIN 1 3 1 5 20 19

Possible

GBR 1 1 3 5 21 20

Possible

AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24

Possible

UKR 1 1 0 2 23 21

Possible

SVK 1 0 0 1 24 22

Possible

CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25

Possible

KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Note that Russia actually goes up 1 gold medal and loses 1 bronze medal from the standings as of 23 December 2017. Why is that? Well, in the men’s 50 km cross-country, the gold and silver medalists, Aleksandr Legkov and Maksim Vylegzhanin, were disqualified. The bronze medalist was another Russian, Ilya Chernousov, as they originally had a medal sweep. So if medal upgrades are done automatically, Chernousov would actually move up from a bronze medal to a gold medal, with silver going to original 4th-place finisher Martin Johnsrud Sundby (NOR) and bronze going to original 5th-place finisher Sergey Dolidovich (BLR).

But that ain’t gonna happen which is why the “perfect re-allocation” is a bit of specious reasoning. One cannot imagine the IOC upgrading another Russian, Chernousov, to the gold medal, given the Russian problems in Sochi, and if they do not do that, then Sundby and Dolidovich cannot move up onto the podium.

To further complicate matters, Sundby had a doping violation in January for salbutamol – the asthma inhaler that recently nabbed Chris Froome – so it’s unlikely he would be advanced either. There have also been rumors that Chernousov was a whistleblower on Legkov and Vylegzhanin to move up in the medals, which has not been taken kindly.

Here are the sports in which the Russians have lost their medals:

Sport

Class G S B TM

BIA

F 0 -2 0 -2

BOB

M -2 0 0 -2

CCS

M -1 -3 0 -4

LUG

M/X 0 -2 0 -2

SKE

M/F -1 0 -1 -2

SSK

F 0 -1 0 -1

My compadre, @OlympicStatman noted that Russia had now had 44 DQs from Sochi 2014, the most ever for a single Olympics. Here are the all-time records for most DQs at a single Olympics by NOC (top 10):

NOC

Year ###

RUS

2014 44

RUS

2012 37

RUS

2008 18

UKR

2012 13

BLR

2008 12

BLR

2012 11

TUR

2012 11

UKR

2008 8

KAZ

2008 7

AUT

2006 6

Note that the top 9 places are from the Sochi 2014 Oswald Commission findings and the re-testing of samples from 2008 and 2012, with the only other one (10th) the Austrian cross-country ski DQs from Torino in 2006.

To date, since the first disqualification in 1968, there have been 445 ADRVs (anti-doping rule violations) at the Olympics, with 72 different countries having at least 1. Here are the all-time ADRVs by NOC, listing the 35 NOCs with at least 3 violations. Some of these are not DQs but simply reprimands, and a few occurred in pre-Games testing so the athlete did not actually start at that Olympics.

NOC

###

RUS

117

BLR

29

UKR

28

USA

24

TUR

15

KAZ

14

AUT

12

BUL

11

GRE

10

CHN

9

GER

9

HUN

9

POL

8

CAN

7

ESP

7

MDA

7

AZE

6

BRA

6

ITA

6

ROU

6

ARM

5

SWE

5

UZB

5

IRL

4

LTU

4

MAR

4

MGL

4

COL

3

CUB

3

FRA

3

IND

3

KSA

3

LAT

3

NOR

3

TPE

3

We think, and we hope, that this it for now. This has required us to make 239 major edits to the Olympic results from 2008-14, editing almost 12,000 results, and it has not been an easy task. It’s not finished yet, as there will be medal upgrades to come but for now we are up-to-date, and we think this is done until after PyeongChang.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, Happy Festivus, Happy New Year – and to all a Good Night.

Russian Olympic Adverse Doping Rule Violations

Here is the complete list of the 105 Russians that have had ADRVs (adverse doping rule violations) at the Olympics. Not all were for documented PED usage, as several were for biological passport offenses (BPOs), and some of the drug offenses were not announced.

Name Sex Season NOC Sport Year HostCity
Nataliya Shekhodanova F S RUS ATH 1996 Atlanta
Marina Trandenkova F S RUS ATH 1996 Atlanta
Andrey Korneyev M S RUS SWI 1996 Atlanta
Zafar Gulyov M S RUS WRE 1996 Atlanta
Svetlana Pospelova F S RUS ATH 2000 Sydney
Olga Danilova F W RUS CCS 2002 Salt Lake City
Larisa Lazutina F W RUS CCS 2002 Salt Lake City
Anton Galkin M S RUS ATH 2004 Athínai
Irina Korzhanenko F S RUS ATH 2004 Athínai
Svetlana Krivelyova F S RUS ATH 2004 Athínai
Albina Khomich F S RUS WLT 2004 Athínai
Oleg Perepechonov M S RUS WLT 2004 Athínai
Olga Pyleva F W RUS BIA 2006 Torino
Pavel Korostelev M W RUS CCS 2006 Torino
Nataliya Matveyeva F W RUS CCS 2006 Torino
Nikolay Pankratov M W RUS CCS 2006 Torino
Mariya Abakumova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Inga Abitova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Denis Alekseyev M S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Yuliya Chermoshanskaya F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Tatyana Chernova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Anna Chicherova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Tatyana Firova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Anastasiya Kapachinskaya F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Tatyana Lebedeva F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Aleksandr Pogorelov M S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Yelena Slesarenko F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Yekaterina Volkova F S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Ivan Yushkov M S RUS ATH 2008 Beijing
Khadzhimurat Akkayev M S RUS WLT 2008 Beijing
Dmitry Lapikov M S RUS WLT 2008 Beijing
Marina Shainova F S RUS WLT 2008 Beijing
Nadezhda Yevstyukhina F S RUS WLT 2008 Beijing
Khasan Baroyev M S RUS WRE 2008 Beijing
Svetlana Terentyeva F W RUS ICH 2010 Vancouver
Yelena Arzhakova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Sergey Bakulin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Mariya Bespalova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Valeriy Borchin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Tatyana Chernova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Maksim Dyldin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Vera Ganeyeva F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yelizaveta Grechishnikova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yuliya Gushchina F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Kirill Ikonnikov M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Vladimir Kanaykin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Olga Kaniskina F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Gulfiya Khanafeyeva F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Sergey Kirdyapkin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yevgeniya Kolodko F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yekaterina Kostetskaya F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Antonina Krivoshapka F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Andrey Krivov M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Tatyana Lysenko F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yekaterina Martynova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Anna Nazarova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Darya Pishchalnikova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Mariya Savinova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Liliya Shobukhova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Dmitry Starodubtsev M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Viktoriya Valyukovich F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Igor Yerokhin M S RUS ATH 2012 London
Yuliya Zaripova F S RUS ATH 2012 London
Viktoriya Baranova F S RUS CYC 2012 London
Yekaterina Gnidenko F S RUS CYC 2012 London
Khadzhimurat Akkayev M S RUS WLT 2012 London
Apti Aukhadov M S RUS WLT 2012 London
Andrey Demanov M S RUS WLT 2012 London
Aleksandr Ivanov M S RUS WLT 2012 London
Svetlana Tsarukayeva F S RUS WLT 2012 London
Nataliya Zabolotnaya F S RUS WLT 2012 London
Besik Kudukhov M S RUS WRE 2012 London
Aleksandr Loginov M W RUS BIA 2014 Sochi
Yana Romanova F W RUS BIA 2014 Sochi
Olga Vilukina F W RUS BIA 2014 Sochi
Olga Zaytseva F W RUS BIA 2014 Sochi
Aleksandr Kasyanov M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Ilvir Khuzin M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Aleksey Negodaylo M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Aleksey Pushkaryov M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Olga Stulneva F W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Dmitry Trunenkov M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Aleksandr Zubkov M W RUS BOB 2014 Sochi
Yevgeny Belov M W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Yuliya Chekalyova F W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Anastasiya Dotsenko F W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Yuliya Ivanova F W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Aleksandr Legkov M W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Aleksey Petukhov M W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Yevgeniya Shapovalova F W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Maksim Vylegzhanin M W RUS CCS 2014 Sochi
Sergey Chudinov M W RUS SKE 2014 Sochi
Yelena Nikitina F W RUS SKE 2014 Sochi
Mariya Orlova F W RUS SKE 2014 Sochi
Olga Potylitsyna F W RUS SKE 2014 Sochi
Aleksandr Tretyakov M W RUS SKE 2014 Sochi
Olga Fatkulina F W RUS SSK 2014 Sochi
Aleksandr Rumyantsev M W RUS SSK 2014 Sochi
Inna Dyubanok F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Yekaterina Lebedeva F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Yekaterina Pashkevich F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Anna Shibanova F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Yekaterina Smolentseva F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Galina Skiba F W RUS ICH 2014 Sochi
Misha Aloyan M S RUS BOX 2016 Rio de Janeiro

There are 64 women and 41 men.

Here is the breakdown by year and season:

Year HostCity Season ###
1996 Atlanta S 4
2000 Sydney S 1
2004 Athina S 5
2008 Beijing S 18
2012 London S 37
2016 Rio de Janeiro S 1
Total S 66
2002 Salt Lake City W 2
2006 Torino W 4
2010 Vancouver W 1
2014 Sochi W 32
Total W 39

And here is the breakdown by sport:

Sport ###
Athletics 47
Cross-Country Skiing 13
Weightlifting 12
Bobsledding 7
Ice Hockey 7
Biathlon 5
Skeleton 5
Wrestling 3
Cycling 2
Speedskating 2
Boxing 1
Swimming 1

There are likely still more to come. This is a huge number of doping positives for a nation that did not run a state-supported doping system, as Russian officials have insisted is the truth.

Olympic Boycotts

So Russia is threatening a potential Olympic Boycott if they are severely disciplined for doping transgressions at Sochi 2014. If required to compete as neutrals or under the Olympic Flag and Olympic Anthem, it is possible they will elect to boycott PyeongChang entirely.

There has not been an Olympic Boycott since the 1988 Seoul Olympics, also in Korea. That year, 6 nations elected not to compete, led by DPR Korea (North Korea), for obvious reasons. They were joined by Albania, Cuba, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, and The Seychelles, which led to then IOC Vice-President Dick Pound to utter one of his more memorable lines, “The Seychelles? Hell, it’s only a country at low tide anyway.”

The first Olympic Boycott occurred in 1952 when Chinese Taipei refused to compete at Helsinki in protest of mainland China being allowed to compete. Chinese Taipei was the only nation that boycotted Helsinki, but the China Problem would cause problems for the IOC until it was titularly solved in 1980 after negotiations by Lord Killanin.

In 1956 at Melbourne, six nations boycotted over two separate political / military actions. On 29 October Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, causing Egypt, Lebanon, and Iraq to withdraw from the Olympics in protest. On 4 November 1956 Soviet tanks invaded Budapest to put down an uprising there, with the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland withdrawing from Melbourne in protests. Hungary competed in Melbourne, although they likely had little choice, but scores of Hungarian athletes defected, many remaining in Australia, but also a number emigrating to the United States. Switzerland technically still competed at the 1956 Olympics, because they had already had athletes at the 1956 Equestrian Olympics held in Stockholm in June 1956.

There was a small boycott of the 1964 Tokyo Olympics and it was due to a complex situation. In the summer of 1962, Jakarta hosted the Asian Games, but it refused to issue visas to athletes from Taiwan and Israel, for which, the IOC suspended the Indonesian NOC. In response Indonesian President Sukarno held an international multi-sport event in Jakarta in 1963 – called the Games of the New Emerging Forces, usually known as GANEFO. China competed at GANEFO, as did DPR Korea (North), and North Vietnam. Unfortunately, none of those nations were recognized by the athletics (IAAF) or swimming (FINA) federations. In response any athletes from Indonesia or North Korea who competed at GANEFO were banned by those federations from competing at Tokyo (China was not a recognized NOC at the time and could not compete). In retribution, Indonesia and North Korea both boycotted the Tokyo Olympics. There was one major loss from that, as by 1964 the North Korean runner Sin Kim-Dan had broken the world records in the 400 and 800 metres, although they were not recognized by the IAAF, and could have been favored for gold medals in those events, if allowed to compete.

There was no Olympic Boycott in 1968 or 1972, although those Games were hardly without problems.  In 1976 26 African nations elected not to compete in protest of the the New Zealand All-Blacks rugby squad playing on a tour of South Africa. South Africa was banned from most international sport at the time because of apartheid, and the African nations wanted New Zealand banned from the 1976 Olympics. The IOC pointed out that they had no jurisdiction over rugby football as a sport and refused to do so, and the African nations walked. For athletics fans, this prevented the big match-up they were anticipating between New Zealand’s John Walker and Tanzania’s Filbert Bayi in the 1,500 metres, which Walker went on to win in Bayi’s absence.

Chinese Taipei also boycotted the 1976 Olympics. This occurred when Canada at first refused to allow them to enter the country, as the Canadian government did not recognize the island nation.  This was in direct violation of the contract they had signed as the host nation to admit all eligible nations in honoring the Olympic Charter.  The Canadians acquiesced and allowed the Taiwanese to compete, but refused to allow them to do so under the title of the Republic of China, their official national name.  Several other countries protested and threatened withdrawal, notably the United States, if the Taiwanese athletes were not allowed to compete.  However, these protests were short-lived and the IOC finally gave in to the Canadian government.  Chinese Taipei watched the Olympics from afar, if at all.

The largest known Olympic Boycott occurred in 1980, when the United States government led a boycott of the 1980 Moskva Olympics after the December 1979 invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union. President Jimmy Carter announced in early January that the United States would not compete if Soviet troops did not withdraw by 20 February 1980. They did not. US Secretary of State Cyrus Vance addressed the IOC Session at Lake Placid in February to announce the US Boycott, which greatly angered the IOC Members. With pressure from the US government, eventually 65 nations did not compete at the 1980 Moskva Olympics. It is actually difficult to say how many actually boycotted as various reasons are given for their absence, but suffice to say that 65 IOC member nations decided not to compete in Moskva.

And 1980 led to the Soviet Union not competing at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, convincing 14 nations under their influence to also not compete. The Soviet’s rationale was that they were not convinced that the USA could guarantee their safety in Los Angeles, but nobody believed their boycott was anything other than retribution for the 1980 US Boycott.

And then came the small 1988 Seoul boycott of 6 nations, since which time there as been no Olympic Boycott. Of note, there has never been a boycott of a Winter Olympics, which could possibly occur in PyeongChang if Russia elects to stay home in anger over doping penalties.

To date, Albania is the Olympic leader in boycotts, having stayed home 4 times (1976, 1980, 1984, 1988), with 3 nations having boycotted 3 times – Egypt, Ethiopia, and DPR Korea. DPR Korea (North) has no qualified athletes for PyeongChang as of 3 December 2017, after failing to enter their figure skating pairs duo in time, so technically they are not boycotting if they do not compete in PyeongChang. The IOC would like them there and there are some negotiations ongoing to see what can be done.

Will Russia compete in PyeongChang? Will North Korea? We await Einstein’s space-time continuum to work its magic and tell us the answer.

The Russian DQs from Sochi

For those of you keeping score at home, here are the 19 Russians disqualified from the Sochi Winter Olympics to date, listing, in order: name, gender, sport, event(s), place(s), medal(s) (if any), violation details, source, and date.

  • Aleksandr Legkov; M; CCS; 50K / Skiathlon / 4x10relay; 1 / 10 / 2; Gold/Silver; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 1 Nov 2017
  • Yevgeny Belov; M; CCS; 15K / Skiathlon; 25 / 18; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 1 Nov 2017
  • Maksim Vylegzhanin; M; CCS; 50K / Skiathlon / Team sprint / 4x10relay; 2 / 4 / 2 / 2; Silverx3; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Aleksey Petukhov; M; CCS; Sprint; 8; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Yuliya Ivanova; F; CCS; 10K / 30K / 4x5relay / Team sprint; 17 / 30 / 6 / 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Yevgeniya Shapovalova; F; CCS; Sprint; 28; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 9 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Tretyakov; M; SKE; Skeleton; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Yelena Nikitina; F; SKE; Skeleton; 3; Bronze; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Olga Potylitsyna; F; SKE; Skeleton; 5; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Mariya Orlova; F; SKE; Skeleton; 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 22 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Zubkov; M; BOB; 2-man / 4-man; 1 / 1; Goldx2; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Stulneva; F; BOB; 2-man; 9; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Aleksandr Rumyantsev; M; SSK; 5K / Pursuit; 11 / 6; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Fatkulina; F; SSK; 500 / 1000 / 1500; 2 / 4 / 9; Silver; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 24 Nov 2017
  • Olga Vilukina; F; BIA; 7.5 / Pursuit / 12.5 / Relay / Mixed Relay; 2 / 7 / 21 / 2 / 4; Silverx2; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Yana Romanova; F; BIA; 7.5 / Pursuit / 15 / Relay; 19 / 23 / 53 / 2; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Dmitry Trunenkov; M; BOB; 4-man; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Aleksey Negodaylo; M; BOB; 4-man; 1; Gold; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017
  • Sergey Chudinov; M; SKE; Skeleton; 5; ; ADRV based on Oswald Commission findings; DQed from all future OG/OWG.; IOC News; 27 Nov 2017

The Sochi Medal Table Revisited – Redux#2

Another day, another dollar. Well, Russia does not like the US dollar so, for them, another day, another 5 Russian doping disqualifications from the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Please see details in my previous two posts on this topic for information about the two medal ranking systems – http://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/ and http://olympstats.com/2017/11/24/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited-redux-1/

Here is what has happened to the first 10 places in the Sochi medal standings, as of today:

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
23-Feb-14 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
23-Feb-14 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
23-Feb-14 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
23-Feb-14 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
23-Feb-14 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

As of 27 November, Russia has dropped from 1st to 5th (US system) and 4th (International system).

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
27-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 3
27-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 2 1
27-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
27-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 4 5
27-Nov-17 RUS 9 5 8 22 5 4
27-Nov-17 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
27-Nov-17 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
27-Nov-17 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
27-Nov-17 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
27-Nov-17 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7

Again, please refer to my earlier posts, but here is what happens with perfect re-allocation, i.e., everybody in 4th moves up to bronze, bronze medalists move up to silver, etc. This is an idealized situation and very unlikely to happen in every case. If it did, Russia would actually move up to 2 bronze medals they did not receive originally. I sincerely doubt the IOC would allow that to happen, given the situation.

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 7 11 29 1 1
Possible USA 9 10 10 29 2 4
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
Possible RUS 10 5 9 24 4 3
Possible NED 8 8 8 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 7 2 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 3 10 11 12
Possible CZE 2 4 3 9 12 15
Possible ITA 0 2 7 9 13 22
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 14 13
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 15 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 16 17
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
Possible LAT 2 0 3 5 20 23
Possible GBR 1 1 2 4 21 19
Possible AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
Possible UKR 1 1 0 2 23 20
Possible SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
Possible CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
Possible KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

More to come, surely.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited – Redux #1

Aleksandr Zubkov, Russian bobsledder who won gold medals in both bobsled events in Sochi, was just disqualified, along with Olga Fatkulina, who won a silver medal in women’s 500 metre speed skating.

How does this affect the Sochi medal tables? See our post of two days ago on the topic of the changes in the Sochi medal table – http://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/.

Here is what happens now, and I’m only going to list the top 5 nations in the first 2 tables, as there are no changes below that level.

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5

With the new disqualifications today, here is what happens.

By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Norway in 2nd, Canada and 3rd, and Russia dropping to 4th. By the International system, now the rankings change quite a bit, with Norway in 1st, Canada in 2nd, the USA in 3rd, and Russia dropping from 1st to 4th. For an explanation of the two ranking systems, see yesterday’s post (noted above).

Please also note that the team disqualifications in bobsled are not automatic, as @OlympicStatman pointed out in a series of tweets, because of IBSF rules.

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
22-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 3
22-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 2 1
22-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 3 2
22-Nov-17 RUS 9 7 8 24 4 4
22-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5

Now as we did 2 days ago, we’ll show you what happens if all medals are re-allocated, i.e., 4th moves up to 3rd, etc. As stated 2 days ago, there will be appeals, and it will take awhile and there is no guarantee all these medals will be re-allocated, but this is what it could look like. Here we go down to 19th/17th place since Latvia would move up in 4-man bobsled and is affected. Here, Russia actually stays in 3rd in both systems, because it could theoretically move up to a bronze medal in 4-man bobsled, after the Zubkov team disqualification, although that may be a stretch (they are also being investigated, it is rumored).

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 6 12 29 1 1
Possible USA 9 10 10 29 2 4
Possible RUS 10 7 9 26 3 3
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 4 2
Possible NED 8 8 8 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 7 2 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 3 10 11 12
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
Possible CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 15 18
Possible ITA 0 2 6 8 16 23
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible LAT 2 0 3 5 19 17

As we said yesterday, there is certainly still more to come.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited

This morning the IOC announced the disqualification of four Russian skeleton sliders from the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. In the process Russia lost 2 more medals from Sochi – gold in the men’s (Aleksandr Tretyakov) and bronze in the women’s (Yelena Nikitina). The Russians had previously had 6 cross-country skiers disqualified from Sochi and lost 4 medals in the process.

Multiple tweets have appeared since stating that the US now moves up to the top of the Sochi medal table. Other tweets have said that USA slider Katie Uehlander will now move up to a bronze medal in women’s skeleton, and that Latvia’s sliding brothers, Martins and Tomass Dukurs, will move up to gold and bronze medals and become the 7th siblings to be “on the podium” in an individual Winter Olympic event.

As Lee Corso likes to say on College GameDay, “Not so fast, my friends.” It’s way more complex than all that.

First of all, it is true that 10 Russians have been tentatively disqualified from Sochi, and if the disqualifications stand, they have lost 6 medals – 2 gold, 3 silvers, and a bronze. However, several of the athletes have already appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), and that process will take months. So it is possible several of the DQs could be reversed, although I personally doubt that.

Secondly, if the disqualifications stand, medals could be upgraded but that also takes time and review by the IOC. It is not automatic. Katie Uehlander could move up to a bronze medal, that is true, but the process needs to run its course.

Thirdly, in one sense, as of today, the US is now on top of the Sochi medal table, but in another sense, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table. How’s that again?

There are two systems for ranking national medals – the US or North American system that ranks by medals, gold, silver, and bronze; and the European or International system that ranks by gold, silver, and bronze. By the US/NA system, as of today, the USA does lead the Sochi medal table, but by the Euro/Inter. system Russia still leads the Sochi medal table today.

Here is the original Sochi medal table on 23 February 2014, the last day of the 2014 Winter Olympics, with Russia leading the table by either ranking system. The USA is in second by the US system, and Norway is in second by the International system, with the USA 4th in that system, still trailing Canada.

Original NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
23-Feb-14 RUS 13 11 9 33 1 1
23-Feb-14 USA 9 7 12 28 2 4
23-Feb-14 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
23-Feb-14 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
23-Feb-14 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
23-Feb-14 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
23-Feb-14 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
23-Feb-14 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
23-Feb-14 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
23-Feb-14 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
23-Feb-14 CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
23-Feb-14 KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
23-Feb-14 CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
23-Feb-14 SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
23-Feb-14 JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
23-Feb-14 ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22
23-Feb-14 BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8
23-Feb-14 POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
23-Feb-14 FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
23-Feb-14 GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19
23-Feb-14 LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23
23-Feb-14 AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
23-Feb-14 UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20
23-Feb-14 SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
23-Feb-14 CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
23-Feb-14 KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Assuming all the disqualifications are upheld, here is what the Sochi medal table looks like today. By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Russia, despite losing 6 medals, and Norway in 3rd. By the International system, there is no actual change in the rankings with Russia still #1, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th.

Current NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
22-Nov-17 USA 9 7 12 28 1 4
22-Nov-17 RUS 11 8 8 27 2 1
22-Nov-17 NOR 11 5 10 26 3 2
22-Nov-17 CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
22-Nov-17 NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
22-Nov-17 GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
22-Nov-17 AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
22-Nov-17 FRA 4 4 7 15 8 10
22-Nov-17 SWE 2 7 6 15 9 14
22-Nov-17 SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
22-Nov-17 CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
22-Nov-17 KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
22-Nov-17 CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
22-Nov-17 SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
22-Nov-17 JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
22-Nov-17 ITA 0 2 6 8 16 22
22-Nov-17 BLR 5 0 1 6 17 8
22-Nov-17 POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
22-Nov-17 FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
22-Nov-17 GBR 1 1 2 4 20 19
22-Nov-17 LAT 0 2 2 4 21 23
22-Nov-17 AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
22-Nov-17 UKR 1 0 1 2 23 20
22-Nov-17 SVK 1 0 0 1 24 21
22-Nov-17 CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
22-Nov-17 KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

Now you ask, what happens if all the medals are re-allocated, by moving up the 4th place finisher to 3rd and a bronze medal, etc.? I hate to go there, but will do so, just because you’re such nice guys. Here is what the current “possible” rankings will look like if this occurs, and I am moving up everybody, although I doubt that will actually happen.

Norway now leads by the USA system, with the USA 2nd, and Russia 3rd. By the international system, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th – no change from the original standings.

Possible NOC G S B TM USRnk EuRnk
Possible NOR 11 6 12 29 1 2
Possible USA 9 8 12 29 2 4
Possible RUS 12 8 7 27 3 1
Possible CAN 10 10 5 25 4 3
Possible NED 8 7 9 24 5 5
Possible GER 8 6 5 19 6 6
Possible AUT 4 8 5 17 7 9
Possible FRA 4 5 6 15 8 10
Possible SWE 2 8 5 15 9 14
Possible SUI 6 3 2 11 10 7
Possible CHN 3 4 2 9 11 12
Possible KOR 3 3 2 8 12 13
Possible CZE 2 4 2 8 13 15
Possible SLO 2 2 4 8 14 16
Possible JPN 1 4 3 8 15 17
Possible ITA 0 2 6 8 16 23
Possible BLR 5 0 2 7 17 8
Possible POL 4 1 1 6 18 11
Possible FIN 1 3 1 5 19 18
Possible LAT 1 1 3 5 20 19
Possible GBR 1 1 2 4 21 20
Possible AUS 0 2 1 3 22 24
Possible UKR 1 0 1 2 23 21
Possible SVK 1 0 0 1 24 22
Possible CRO 0 1 0 1 25 25
Possible KAZ 0 0 1 1 26 26

It is unlikely this will happen that way in every case, so this is an idealized situation. For this to occur, the 3rd-place finisher in the 50 km cross-country would move up to a gold medal, but that is another Russian, Ilya Chernousov. I doubt he will be moved up, given the opprobrium surrounding the Russian team in Sochi. If he is not advanced, then Norway’s Martin Johnsrud Sundby, who originally finished 4th in that event, cannot move up to the silver medal.

And to further complicate matters, Sundby had a doping violation revealed in January 2015, and after appeals, was banned from sport for 2 months (it was only an asthma inhaler) in July 2016, after an appeal to CAS. It is unlikely the IOC would move up an athlete since disqualified for doping.

So there you have it. Much more complicated than you might think. And there is certainly more to come.

North Korea at the Winter Olympics

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPR Korea, or PRK to the IOC), known to most of the world as North Korea, has recently qualified a pairs figure skating duo (Ryom Tae-Ok and Kim Ju-Sik) for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics. It was not certain any North Korean athletes would qualify, and no North Koreans competed at Sochi in 2014.

DPR Korea first competed at the Olympics in 1964 and it was at the Innsbruck Winter Olympics, with a team of 13 athletes, 6 men and 7 women. Including 1964 they have competed 8 previous times at the Winter Olympics, missing 1968, 1976, 1980, 1994, 2002, and 2014.

DPR Korea has had two Winter Olympic medalists, both women speedskaters. In 1964 Han Pil-Hwa won a silver medal in 3,000 metres speedskating, while in 1992, Hwang Ok-Sil won a bronze medal in 500 metres short-track speedskating. Here is the complete record of their previous Winter Olympic participation.

WinOly Men Women Total
1964 6 7 13
1972 0 6 6
1984 3 3 6
1988 3 3 6
1992 9 11 20
1998 2 6 8
2006 2 4 6
2010 1 1 2
DPR Korea (North) ### 1G 2G
Total 62 57 5
Men 25 24 1
Women 37 33 4
Men – Sport Nation ### 1G 2G
Alpine Skiing PRK 1 1 0
Cross-Country Skiing PRK 4 4 0
Figure Skating PRK 7 7 0
Speedskating PRK 10 9 1
Short-Track Speedskating PRK 3 3 0
Women – Sport Nation ### 1G 2G
Alpine Skiing PRK 1 1 0
Cross-Country Skiing PRK 4 4 0
Figure Skating PRK 6 6 0
Speedskating PRK 19 16 3
Short-Track Speedskating PRK 7 6 1

2008-12 Olympic Doping Re-Test – An Update-Update

OK, time for our occasional update on the status of the doping re-tests from the 2008 and 2012 Olympics. Our last post on this topic was in April 2017 – see http://olympstats.com/2017/04/03/2008-2012-doping-re-tests-an-update/, while we first posted about his in November 2016, urged on by Roger Pielke, which we appreciated. For that original post see http://olympstats.com/2016/11/28/summary-of-the-ioc-re-testing-from-2008-2012-to-date/. We’ll keep this a little shorter and just summarize more recent findings.

First of all, there has not been much to update since April 2017. At that time we noted that there had been 182 positive PED tests from the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, and as of 22 Sep, there are now 190 positive tests. A few came out in later April 2017 and one in August but not nearly as much activity as 2015-16.

We are including all positive tests that affect 2008-12 Olympic results. This includes positive tests done in pre-Games testing, original testing at the Olympic Games, re-testing of samples done at a later date, and retroactive disqualifications for other positive tests in the peri-Olympic era that were announced later.

Once again, the former Soviet republics make up the bulk of the nations with positive tests. Here are the 11 nations with the most positive tests:

NOC ###
Russia 53
Belarus 23
Ukraine 20
Turkey 14
Kazakhstan 12
Azerbaijan 6
Moldova 5
Armenia 4
China 4
Greece 4
Uzbekistan 4

And here is a current summary of the 5 sports most affected in 2008-12:

Sport ###
Athletics 108
Weightlifting 51
Wrestling 9
Equestrian Events 7
Cycling 6

Finally, the 5 drugs or violations most responsible for positive tests from 2008-12:

Substance/Violation ###
Turinabol (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone) 83
Stanozolol (anabolic steroid) 41
Biological passport offense 34
Oxandrolone 9
Erythropoietin (EPO) 7

Nothing particularly new in any of that.

Now we can look a little bit more at medal re-assignments. We danced around that a bit in the first two posts on the subject, because medal re-assignments are announced slowly (if at all), and are often subject to litigation or arbitration at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Witness the case of Nesta Carter, Jamaican sprinter who won a gold medal in 2008 in the 4×100 relay, alongside one Usain Bolt. Carter had a positive re-test that was announced in late 2016, but it is still in arbitration at the CAS and no final decision has been announced, so the medal has not been removed, neither from Carter, nor Bolt, and thus no medal(s) has/have been re-assigned.

But here are the medal re-assignments we do know about:

  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 10,000 metres.  Elvan Abeylegesse (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Shalane Flanagan (USA) to silver, and Linet Masai (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 4×100 relay.  Russia [Gold] disqualified. Advance Belgium to gold, Nigeria to silver, and Brazil to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jamaica to silver, and Great Britain to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 5,000 metres.  Elvan Abeylegesse (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Meseret Defar (ETH) to silver, and Sylvia Kibet (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Discus throw.  Yarelis Barrios (CUB) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Olena Antonova (UKR) to silver and Song Aimin (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics High jump.  Anna Chicherova (RUS) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Chaunté Lowe (USA) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Hammer throw.  Oksana Menkova (BLR) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Yipsi Moreno (CUB) to gold, and Zhang Wenxiu (CHN) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Javelin throw.  Mariya Abakumova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Christina Obergföll (GER) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Long jump.  Tatyana Lebedeva (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Blessing Okagbare (NGR) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Shot put.  Nataliya Khoroneko (BLR) [Silver] and Nadezhda Ostapchuk (BLR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Misleydis González (CUB) to silver, and Gong Lijiao (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Steeplechase.  Yekaterina Volkova (RUS) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Tatyana Petrova-Arkhipova (RUS) to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Great Britain to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Athletics Pole vault.  Denys Yurchenko (UKR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Derek Miles (USA) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Modern Pentathlon Individual.  Viktoriya Tereshchuk (UKR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Anastasiya Samusevich (BLR) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting +75 kg.  Olha Korobka (UKR) [Silver] and Mariya Grabovetskaya (KAZ) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Ele Opeloge (SAM) to silver, and Maryam Usman (NGR) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 48 kg.  Chen Xiexia (CHN) [Gold] and Sibel Özkan (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Chen Wei-Ling (TPE) to gold.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 58 kg.  Marina Shainova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jong-Ae O (PRK) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 63 kg.  Irina Nekrasova (KAZ) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Ying-Chi Lu (TPE) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 69 kg.  Liu Chunhong (CHN) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Oksana Slivenko (RUS) to gold.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 75 kg.  Cao Lei (CHN) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Alla Vazhenina (KAZ) to gold.
  • 2008 Men’s Weightlifting 94 kg.  Ilya Ilyin (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Szymon Kołecki (POL) to gold.
  • 2008 Men’s Wrestling 120 kg Greco-Roman.  Khasan Baroyev (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Mindaugas Mizgaitis (LTU) to silver, and Yury Patrikeyev (ARM) to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Wrestling 60 kg Greco-Roman.  Vitaliy Rəhimov (AZE) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Nurbakyt Tengizbayev (KAZ) to silver, and Ruslan Tumenbayev (KGZ) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 800 metres.  Mariya Savinova (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Caster Semenya (RSA) to gold, and Yekaterina Poistogova (RUS) to silver.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 1,500 metres.  Asli Cakir (TUR) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Maryam Jamal (BRN) to gold. No other advancement.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 20 km walk.  Olga Kaniskina (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Qieyang Shenjie (CHN) to silver, and Liu Hong (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jamaica to silver, and the Ukraine to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Discus throw.  Darya Pishchalnikova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Li Yanfeng (CHN) to silver.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Hammer throw.  Tatyana Lysenko (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Anita Włodarczyk (POL) to gold, Betty Heidler (GER) to silver, and Zhang Wenxiu (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Shot put.  Yevgeniya Kolodko (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Gong Lijiao (CHN) to silver, and Li Ling (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Steeplechase.  Yuliya Zaripova (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Habiba Ghribi (TUN) to gold, Sofia Assefa (ETH) to silver, and Milcah Chemos Cheywa (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Men’s Athletics 50 km walk.  Sergey Kirdyapkin (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Jared Tallent (AUS) to gold, Si Tianfeng (CHN) to silver, and Robbie Heffernan (IRL) to bronze.
  • 2012 Men’s Athletics Javelin throw.  Oleksandr P’iatnytsia (UKR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Antti Ruuskanen (FIN) to silver and Vitezslav Vesely (CZE) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Weightlifting 53 kg.  Zulfiya Chinshanlo (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Shu-Ching Hsu (TPE) to gold.
  • 2012 Women’s Weightlifting 63 kg.  Maiya Maneza (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Christine Girard (CAN) to gold.
  • 2012 Men’s Weightlifting 85 kg.  Apti Aukhadov (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Kianoush Rostami (IRI) to silver.

I will say, as an Olympic statistician, that trying to keep up with these disqualifications and medal re-assignments, and changing all the results, is one of the more challenging things we face.

There will be more as several others are under consideration and, as noted, several are under arbitration with the CAS. The IOC has not always made overt announcements of these medal re-assignments so it can be very difficult to keep track of this, although we have been in contact with people at the IOC to stay on top of it.

So as of mid-September 2017 that is the status of the 2008-12 Olympic doping testing – again, because of the uncertainty in some of the medal re-assignments, please understand that it is to the best of our knowledge.

Olympic Costs and Venue Construction

A few months ago we looked at Olympic costs and how they related to both the number of athletes at the Olympics and the number of events contested, correcting all the figures against inflation. The post can be seen here – http://olympstats.com/2017/06/19/olympic-costs-rio-2016-and-future-projections/.

In that post we briefly touched on venue construction being affected by the number of events but did not analyze it deeply. Venue construction has been mentioned a lot in the recent awarding of the Games to Paris (2024) and Los Angeles (2028), in which Paris noted it had only to build “a few venues” including the Olympic Village and a media centre, while Los Angeles promised it did not need to build a single venue, a fact I look at somewhat dubiously.

When Peter Ueberroth was named head of the Los Angeles Organizing Committee for the 1984 Olympics, he famously later noted that his first project was to go and read all the previous Official Reports, to get some handle on Olympic Costs and what affects them. He did this at the Helms Foundation Library, which no longer exists, but has been subsumed within the LA84 Foundation Library in Los Angeles, a direct offspring of the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics.

Ueberroth noted that, to him, the most important and biggest cost faced by organizing committees (OCOGs) was the need to build venues and he decided he would host the 1984 Olympics by building as few of them as possible. He was helped by the fact that Los Angeles has and had myriad athletic facilities that he was able to use. He did end up having to build a velodrome, a swim stadium, and shooting range, but was able to get the velodrome and swim stadium paid for by sponsors – 7-Eleven and McDonalds, respectively.

So it appears that building venues and stadia is important in terms of the costs of the Olympics, but the question is how important is it, and can we estimate final Olympic costs based on how many venues the OCOG have to build? And is there a way to determine these figures?

Turns out, our Olympic stat group, the OlyMADMen, has compiled information on the venues of all the Olympics, in addition all the other facts our database contains. The venues can be found at our main site – www.olympedia.org – which for now is a private site, although we can provide access. Here is one of those pages of venues:

Further, we have detailed information on each venue, including, in most cases, the dates on which they were constructed. So we have a fairly good estimate of how any venues were constructed for each Olympics. To make this estimate, we made the assumption that any venue built within four years of the Olympics at which it served as a venue was likely constructed for that Olympics.

And what did we find? Here is the table of venue construction since the 1960 Roma Olympics, listing the percentage of all venues that were constructed specifically for each Olympic Games:

Year Host City Venue%
1960 Roma 37.9%
1964 Tokyo 43.3%
1968 Mexico City 24.2%
1972 Munich 30.3%
1976 Montréal 29.2%
1980 Moscow 19.2%
1984 Los Angeles 23.3%
1988 Seoul 46.9%
1992 Barcelona 43.6%
1996 Atlanta 27.6%
2000 Sydney 51.7%
2004 Athens 67.6%
2008 Beijing 67.6%
2012 London 37.9%
2016 Rio de Janeiro 54.1%

That doesn’t tell us much, although Los Angeles and Atlanta did not build many venues, and notably, Moscow in 1980 especially did not.

In our last post on Olympic costs, we looked carefully at how those costs were related to the number of athletes and the number of events. Venues are directly related to events, although you might not think so. But when you add new events, you may need to build new venues. Think of whitewater canoeing, which requires a completely new, fairly expensive venue for only a few events added onto the canoeing program. Or BMX cycling and mountain biking, which each require new venues for the cycling program, although the mountain bike venue is relatively construction free.

So since venues and events are related, we preferred to look at how venue construction related to costs per athlete at each Olympic Games. Here are the numbers for venue construction percentage and costs per athlete since 1960, with all figures corrected against inflation, using 2000 US dollars:

Year Host City Venue% Cost/Athlete
1960 Roma 37.9% $85658
1964 Tokyo 43.3% $2294729
1968 Mexico City 24.2% $176132
1972 Munich 30.3% $392644
1976 Montréal 29.2% $763404
1980 Moscow 19.2% $920500
1984 Los Angeles 23.3% $136960
1988 Seoul 46.9% $712264
1992 Barcelona 43.6% $918012
1996 Atlanta 27.6% $178787
2000 Sydney 51.7% $214034
2004 Athens 67.6% $994191
2008 Beijing 67.6% $2246903
2012 London 37.9% $759428
2016 Rio de Janeiro 54.1% $823864

A couple of Games are obvious outliers here. Mainly Tokyo 1964 and Beijing 2008 are by far the most expensive Olympic Games ever (talking only Summer Olympics), which we knew. Further, omitting those 2 outliers, the modern era of costs and construction seems to begin in 1972, so we looked at venue construction vs cost/athlete since 1972, and omitted the absurdly expensive Beijing Olympics. Here is what that comparative table looks like, ranked in ascending order of venue construction percentage (VCP):

Year VCP Cost/Athlete
1980 19.2% $920500
1984 23.3% $136960
1996 27.6% $178787
1976 29.2% $763404
1972 30.3% $392644
2012 37.9% $759428
1992 43.6% $918012
1988 46.9% $712264
2000 51.7% $214034
2016 54.1% $823864
2004 67.6% $994191

Is there anything we can make of this table, which seems to jump around quite a bit? Here is what the chart looks like for this table:

The dots on the chart are the data points, comparing costs against VCP, while the straight line is the best fit denoting the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC). The PCC for this comparison is 0.3671. For those not familiar with PCC it analyzes if two sets of data are correlated together, i.e., if one moves up, does the other move up, and vice-versa. The PCC can range from 1 to -1. A PCC of 1 indicates a perfect correlation between two data sets, which rarely exists, while a a PCC of -1 is a perfect negative correlation, meaning if one set of data moves up, the other always moves down. A PCC of 0 equals no significant correlation in either direction.

So what does a PCC of 0.3671 mean? Unfortunately, there is no hard answer to that and it is open to interpretation. It is a positive number, meaning there is some correlation. But it is not very close to 1 so it is, at best, only a fair correlation between Olympic costs per athlete and VCP. Checking the PCC for its statistical significance, one finds it is weak, with a p-value between 0.15 and 0.10.

So this analysis somewhat supports Peter Ueberroth’s original contention, although not strongly. The number of athletes and number of events may still be a better predictor of overall Olympic costs, although venue construction certainly figures into the equation, at least to a degree, and it is directly related to the number of events.