Olympic Medals Won by Nations – A Deeper Analysis

Recently I posted about the United States’ dominance of the all-time Olympic medal lists (hey, I’m a Merkan – give me a break). But there are some things that can be analyzed a bit more closely.

Firstly, the United States is the world’s 3rd most populous country, after China and India. It would stand to reason that a country with more people would have a larger pool from which to draw great athletes. The US is also the world’s 3rd (or possibly 4th) largest country, after Russia and Canada, although not certain if that has any effect. (China and the United States are almost the exact same size and sometimes China is listed the 3rd largest nation.)

Secondly, the United States is a wealthy country, with the world’s largest gross domestic product (GDP). Again, a country with great wealth has several advantages in terms of producing great athletes and Olympic medalists. Not only is there more money to support the athletes, theoretically, but people from wealthy nations typically have more leisure time allowing them to train more for sports.

So let’s look at the Olympic medal lists in a couple different ways. Remember that North America and Europe/International analyze medal lists differently – in North America the nations are ranked by 1) medals, 2) gold, 3) silver, and 4) bronze; while in Europe they are ranked by 1) gold, 2) silver, and 3) bronze. So we’ll compare lists both by total medals won and gold medals won (we can’t use silver and bronze well in the analysis that will follow).

Second, a caveat is in order. We are going to eliminate any nations that no longer exists – you’ll see why soon.

We will then look at medals won in terms of 1) medals won per capita, or divided by the nation’s population, to eliminate the advantage gained by larger nations; 2) medals won per GDP, to eliminate the advantage gained by wealthier nations; and 3) medals won per GDP per capita, which is probably a better way to measure a nation’s wealth.

Here is the basic top 25 medal list, uncorrected, with ranks on the left both in US system and the European system:

[table]

RankUS,RankEur,NOC,G,S,B,Meds

1,1,United States,1083,863,760,2706

2,2,Soviet Union,473,376,355,1204

3,3,Germany,292,326,312,930

4,4,Great Britain,254,288,287,829

5,6,France,250,265,314,829

6,5,Italy,243,206,231,680

7,8,Sweden,194,210,236,640

8,10,Russia,183,166,179,528

9,7,China,213,166,147,526

10,9,German Demo. Rep.,192,165,162,519

11,13,Australia,144,159,185,488

12,12,Hungary,169,151,170,490

13,11,Norway,174,162,142,478

14,14,Finland,145,147,175,467

15,15,Japan,140,143,160,443

16,16,Canada,122,156,167,445

17,17,The Netherlands,115,125,140,380

18,19,Switzerland,101,116,114,331

19,21,Austria,82,115,119,316

20,20,Romania,88,94,120,302

21,18,Korea (South),107,99,90,296

22,23,Poland,70,89,132,291

23,24,Fed. Rep. of Germany,67,82,94,243

24,26,Bulgaria,52,87,81,220

25,22,Cuba,71,65,66,202

[/table]

This is as we noted, with the USA on top, in both systems. We will eliminate the Soviet Union, Federal Republic of Germany (West), German Democratic Republic (East), and other non-extant nations, such as Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The reason now becomes more obvious – we are using current figures for population (2014) and gross domestic product (2013), and those figures don’t exist any more for those nations, and there is no good way to extrapolate to them. Here are the population, GDP, and GDP per capita figures (Source: US CIA Factbook) for the top 25 nations on the “raw” medal list:

[table]

NOC,Population,GDP,GDP PC,Status

United States,318892103,$16720000,$52800,

Soviet Union,,,,NLE

Germany,80996685,$3593000,$39500,

Great Britain,63742977,$2490000,$37300,

France,66259012,$2739000,$35700,

Italy,61680122,$2068000,$29600,

Sweden,9723809,$552000,$40900,

Russia,142470272,$2113000,$18100,

China,1355692576,$9330000,$9800,

German Democratic Republic,,,,NLE

Australia,22507617,$1488000,$43000,

Hungary,9919128,$130600,$19800,

Norway,5147792,$515800,$55400,

Finland,5268799,$259600,$35900,

Japan,127103388,$5007000,$37100,

Canada,34834841,$1825000,$43100,

The Netherlands,16877351,$800500,$41400,

Switzerland,8061516,$646200,$46000,

Austria,8223062,$417900,$42600,

Romania,21729871,$188900,$13200,

Korea (South),49039986,$1198000,$33200,

Poland,38346279,$513900,$21100,

Federal Republic of Germany,,,,NLE

Bulgaria,6924716,$53700,$14400,

Cuba,11047251,$72300,$10200,

[/table]

NLE=No Longer Exists

Here is what happens if we look at medals and gold medals per million population:

[table]

Rank,NOC,Meds,Meds/Pop

1,Liechtenstein,9,241.203

2,Norway,478,92.855

3,Finland,467,88.635

4,Sweden,640,65.818

5,Hungary,490,49.400

6,Switzerland,331,41.059

7,Austria,316,38.429

8,The Bahamas,12,37.286

9,Denmark,185,33.219

10,Estonia,40,31.798

11,Bulgaria,220,31.770

12,New Zealand,101,22.945

13,Jamaica,67,22.867

14,The Netherlands,380,22.515

15,Australia,488,21.682

16,Cuba,202,18.285

17,Slovenia,34,17.100

18,Belgium,155,14.833

19,Trinidad & Tobago,18,14.707

20,Bermuda,1,14.319

21,Romania,302,13.898

22,Greece,144,13.364

23,Great Britain,829,13.005

24,Canada,445,12.775

25,Iceland,4,12.604

[/table]

[table]

Rank,NOC,Gold,Gold/Pop

1,Liechtenstein,2,53.601

2,Norway,174,33.801

3,Finland,145,27.521

4,Sweden,194,19.951

5,Hungary,169,17.038

6,The Bahamas,5,15.536

7,Switzerland,101,12.529

8,Estonia,13,10.335

9,Austria,82,9.972

10,New Zealand,42,9.541

11,Grenada,1,9.078

12,Denmark,46,8.260

13,Bulgaria,52,7.509

14,The Netherlands,115,6.814

15,Cuba,71,6.427

16,Australia,144,6.398

17,Jamaica,17,5.802

18,Romania,88,4.050

19,Great Britain,254,3.985

20,Italy,243,3.940

21,Belgium,41,3.924

22,Luxembourg,2,3.841

23,France,250,3.773

24,Germany,292,3.605

25,Greece,38,3.526

[/table]

One thing of note above – the top nations are predominately winter sports nations. Liechtenstein, in particular, owes all of its medals to two winter sports families – the Wenzels and the Frommelts. Also, if you look at the two lists above, they are quite similar when using both ranking systems.

Now let’s look at how the nations do if we compare medals won per GDP, in million $:

[table]

Rank,NOC,Meds,Meds/GDP

1,Jamaica,67,4656.011

2,Bulgaria,220,4096.834

3,Hungary,490,3751.914

4,Cuba,202,2793.914

5,Mongolia,24,2154.399

6,Tonga,1,2096.436

7,Kenya,86,1898.036

8,Finland,467,1798.921

9,Liechtenstein,9,1760.219

10,Korea DPR (North),49,1750.000

11,Estonia,40,1647.446

12,Romania,302,1598.729

13,Georgia,25,1567.398

14,The Bahamas,12,1433.178

15,Belarus,91,1314.269

16,Grenada,1,1233.046

17,Sweden,640,1159.420

18,Armenia,12,1153.846

19,Ethiopia,45,950.570

20,Norway,478,926.716

21,Moldova,7,882.501

22,Latvia,26,855.826

23,Zimbabwe,8,763.359

24,Austria,316,756.162

25,Slovenia,34,726.185

[/table]

[table]

Rank,NOC,Gold,Gold/GDP

1,Hungary,169,1294.028

2,Grenada,1,1233.046

3,Jamaica,17,1181.376

4,Cuba,71,982.019

5,Bulgaria,52,968.343

6,The Bahamas,5,597.158

7,Finland,145,558.552

8,Kenya,25,551.755

9,Estonia,13,535.420

10,Korea DPR (North),14,500.000

11,Romania,88,465.855

12,Ethiopia,21,443.599

13,Liechtenstein,2,391.160

14,Georgia,6,376.176

15,Burundi,1,373.692

16,Sweden,194,351.449

17,Norway,174,337.340

18,Zimbabwe,3,286.260

19,Belarus,18,259.965

20,New Zealand,42,231.916

21,Surinam,1,199.641

22,The Ukraine,35,199.430

23,Austria,82,196.219

24,Mongolia,2,179.533

25,Croatia,10,169.090

[/table]

Again, the lists are similar, although Jamaica leads in terms of medals won per capita while Hungary leads in terms of gold medals won per capita. But Jamaica, Bulgaria, Cuba, and Hungary are in the top 5 on both systems.

Finally, looking at the medal lists in terms of GDP per $1,000 per capita:

[table]

Rank,NOC,Meds,Meds/GDPPC

1,China,526,53.673

2,United States,2706,51.250

3,Kenya,86,47.778

4,Ethiopia,45,37.500

5,Russia,528,29.171

6,Korea DPR (North),49,27.222

7,Hungary,490,24.747

8,Germany,930,23.544

9,France,829,23.221

10,Italy,680,22.973

11,Romania,302,22.879

12,Great Britain,829,22.225

13,Cuba,202,19.804

14,The Ukraine,122,16.486

15,Sweden,640,15.648

16,Bulgaria,220,15.278

17,Poland,291,13.791

18,Zimbabwe,8,13.333

19,Finland,467,13.008

20,Japan,443,11.941

21,Australia,488,11.349

22,Canada,445,10.325

23,The Netherlands,380,9.179

24,Brazil,108,8.926

25,Korea (South),296,8.916

[/table]

[table]

Rank,NOC,Gold,Gold/GDPPC

1,China,213,21.735

2,United States,1083,20.511

3,Ethiopia,21,17.500

4,Kenya,25,13.889

5,Russia,183,10.110

6,Hungary,169,8.535

7,Italy,243,8.209

8,Korea DPR (North),14,7.778

9,Germany,292,7.392

10,France,250,7.003

11,Cuba,71,6.961

12,Great Britain,254,6.810

13,Romania,88,6.667

14,Zimbabwe,3,5.000

15,Sweden,194,4.743

16,The Ukraine,35,4.730

17,Finland,145,4.039

18,Japan,140,3.774

19,Bulgaria,52,3.611

20,Australia,144,3.349

21,Poland,70,3.318

22,Korea (South),107,3.223

23,Norway,174,3.141

24,Canada,122,2.831

25,The Netherlands,115,2.778

[/table]

Again, many of the “standard” powerful Olympic nations come out on top by this analysis – with China 1st and the United States 2nd. The main reason for this is that while population and GDP differ by several magnitudes among nations, there is not the same magnitude of difference in terms of GDP per capita, which varies from $102,100 per person for Qatar, down to about $1,000 for the very poor nations. But many of those nations have never won an Olympic medal.

7 thoughts on “Olympic Medals Won by Nations – A Deeper Analysis”

  1. It would be interesting if you were able to publish separate tables for the summer and winter Olympics. A combined table advantages those winter Olympic nations.

    Another interesting table would be just for the most universal of all sports – athletics

  2. This is great. It would be even better, if the medals from the non-extant countries be attached to their surviving offspring. I know that would be quite a task, perhaps insurmountable, these things are commonly a moving target.

    1. I agree wholeheartedly. If Russia is able to annexe countries – Ukraine, Georgia etc etc then I can’t understand why they can’t be allowed to annexe Olympic medals.

      1. Not interested in snarky geopolitics at this venue. Why shouldn’t Estonia, Armenia, Slovakia, Slovenia…be credited with achievements of their members that competed under flags of USSR, Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia.

        1. Given that this is purely a voluntary exercise where someone wants to show how many medals have been won by persons from a particular country under 2014 political boundaries this should be no problem – other that someone has to devote the probable many hours of research to come up with the correct numbers.

          I agree it would be interesting to see those numbers. but I imagine it would be a massive research exercise.

          As for “snarky geopolitics” I would observe that the whole Olympic movement has for years been all about “snarky geopolitics”.

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