Ledecky’s 400 WR in Statistical Context

Katie Ledecky crushed the world record last night in the women’s 400 metre freestyle, swimming 3:56.46, to better her own world record by 1.91 seconds. Since swimming world records converted to all LCM marks in the late 1950s, that is the 7th largest improvement in the women’s 400 free world mark – see the table below. Further, in an era in which records are often improved by 100ths of a second, the mark is a quantum leap, as it has been 40 years since anyone improved the 400 free world record by a larger margin, done in 1976 by Barbara Krause at the GDR Olympic Trials, most likely with a little, shall we say, assistance. The all-time best in this category is held by Debbie Meyer, the woman whose marks Ledecky is chasing in Rio, who won the 200-400-800 freestyle treble at the 1968 Mexico City Olympics, and improved the WR by 3.8 seconds at the 1967 Pan American Games. Second is another swim legend to whom Ledecky can aspire, Shane Gould, who won gold at the 1972 Olympics by bettering the world mark by 3.16 seconds. But that was all in a different era.

[table]

Mark,Improvement,Name,NOC,Date,Event

4:32.6,3.8,Debbie Meyer,USA,27 July 1967,Pan American Games

4:19.04,3.16,Shane Gould,AUS,30 August 1972,Olympic Games

4:11.69,3.07,Barbara Krause,GDR,3 June 1976,GDR Olympic Trials

4:42.0,2.5,Marilyn Ramenofsky,USA,11 July 1964,

4:26.7,2.3,Debbie Meyer,USA,1 August 1968,AAU Championships

4:39.5,2.2,Marilyn Ramenofsky,USA,31 August 1964,

3:56.46,1.91,Katie Ledecky,USA,7 August 2016,Olympic Games

[/table]

Phelps Ties Olympic Mark for Most Team Event Gold Medals

Michael Phelps helped the USA win gold in the 4×100 freestyle relay. It was Olympic medal #23  and Olympic gold medal #19. Not as well known, however, is that it was his 8th gold medal in a relay, which equalled the @TeamUSA record, and the overall Olympic record, of 8 gold medals in team events. Phelps is now tied with another @TeamUSA swimmer, Jenny Thompson, who won 8 gold medals in relay events between 1992 and 2000. Three Olympians have won 6 gold medals in team events – USA swimmer Matt Biondi, German canoeist Birgit Fischer-Schmidt, and Hungarian fencer Aladár Gerevich.

Olympic Basketball Game Margins

The United States women defeated Senegal today in basketball, 121-56, a 65 point margin. Is that the largest margin in Olympic history? Not quite – its the third largest, after two 66-point margins for women, one by the former Soviet Union, and one by host nation Brazil, although back in 2004. Here are the largest margins ever in Olympic women’s basketball.

[table]

Margin,Teams,Score,Year/Round

66,Soviet Union d. Italy,119 – 53,1980 Round-Robin

66,Brazil d. Japan,128 – 62,2004 Group A

65,United States d. Senegal, 121-56,2012 Group B

64,Soviet Union d. Canada,115 – 51,1976 Round-Robin

60,United States d. DPR Congo (Kinshasa),107 – 47,1996 Group B

58,Soviet Union d. Hungary,120 – 62,1980 Round-Robin

57,Australia d. Senegal,96 – 39,2000 Group A

56,United States d. Czechoslovakia,111 – 55,1992 Group B

56,United States d. Mali,97 – 41,2008 Group B

55,United States d. Spain,114 – 59,1992 Group B

52,United States d. New Zealand,99 – 47,2004 Group B

52,United States d. Angola,90 – 38,2012 Group A

[/table]

And here are the largest margins in men’s Olympic basketball.

[table]

Margin,Teams,Score,Year/Round

100,Korea (South) d. Iraq,120 – 20,1948 Group B

100,China d. Iraq,125 – 25,1948 Group B

83,United States d. Nigeria,156 – 73,2012 Group A

82,Chile d. Iraq,100 – 18,1948 Group B

78,Belgium d. Iraq,98 – 20,1948 Group B

73,Brazil d. India,137 – 64,1980 Group A

72,The Philippines d. Iraq,102 – 30,1948 Group B

72,United States d. Thailand,101 – 29,1956 Group A

72,Soviet Union d. Morocco,123 – 51,1968 Group B

68,United States d. The Philippines,121 – 53,1956 Group A

68,Czechoslovakia d. India,133 – 65,1980 Group A

68,United States d. Angola,116 – 48,1992 Group A

[/table]

As you can see those two 1948 margins are quite a bit larger than any women’s game, and even 17 points more than the margin by which the USA men defeated Nigeria in 2012. The 1992 USA Dream Team’s largest margin of 68 only comes in =10th on this list.

Women’s Air Rifle – Virginia Thrasher – USA

Virginia Thrasher (USA) won the women’s air rifle gold medal this morning for the first gold medal of the 2016 Rio Olympics.

The USA has also won the first gold medal at the Summer Olympics in 1896, 1904, 1924, 1952, 1956, 1984, and 2000.

Thrasher is the third USA woman to win the first gold medal of a Summer Olympics, after Connie-Carpenter Phinney, in the 1984 women’s cycling road race; and Nancy Napolski-Johnson, also in the women’s air rifle, in 2000.

 

USA and 1,000 Gold Medals – Hmmm??

Sometime during the coming fortnight, a United States athlete will win a gold medal and it will be the 1,000th gold medal won by a US Olympian at the Summer Olympic Games. The problem comes in knowing which one that will be, and we’re not talking about predicting who it will be.

I compile Olympic statistics and do work for the US Olympic Committee at each Olympic Games. I am always asked to compile various lists for the USA Media Guide, and that always includes the list of most medals won by nations. In the list for 2016 I ran the query thru our database and came out with 975 gold medals for the US at the Summer Olympics since 1896. (This did not include 1906, considered unofficial by the IOC, but not the International Society of Olympic Historians (ISOH), which would add another 12 gold medals.)

Then a few days later Infostrada / Gracenote came out with their similar list and had 977 gold medals for the USA. Oops! So I know the guys at the former Infostrada and asked for their data and we compared our lists.

I had a mistake of 1 gold medal, where in a counting field what should have been a 1 was listed as a 0. So my count became 976, which still did not agree with Infostrada / Gracenote. So now what?

Looking at their data, I also noted that InfoGrace had a mistake when they did not include the 1904 women’s team archery event, which the USA won. It is listed as a competition in the Spalding Official Athletic Almanac for 1905, which is considered the 1904 Official Report (except for athletics [track & field], where there was a second report).

Further, InfoGrace had two gold medals I did not list – one in 1904 gymnastics all-around, won by Julius Lenhart, and one in 1904 gymnastics team all-around, won a team from the Philadelphia Turngemeinde, which included Lenhart.

Here is the problem. Lenhart was Austrian, and this has been known since the early 1970s and was discovered by Austrian Erich Kamper, the doyen of Olympic historians and statisticians. We credit the individual all-around gold to Lenhart and to Austria, which is correct. InfoGrace is wrong on that one, I feel, for certain.

The gold medal open to interpretation is the 1904 team all-around. My data credits it to a mixed team, not Austria, and not the United States. In 1900 and 1904, there were several events with teams composed of athletes from various nations. There were no national teams in that era, and athletes basically competed for themselves.

Infostrada / Gracenote conceded on the 1904 women’s archery event, bringing their total to 978, but would not yield on the Lenhart question. This is despite the fact that their results for the 1904 individual all-around also listed Lenhart as Austrian, as he was.

Now, I will admit that the team all-around gold is open to interpretation and somewhat controversial. However, I still think 978 is wrong. I’m sticking with 976 gold medals, although I would concede 977, if somebody wants to use that.

The problem then is who will win the 1,000th gold medal for the USA? Depends on if you use 976 or 977 (or if you use InfoGrace’s data, 978).

Here’s my # – 976 gold medals to date. I’ll go with that and let the race to 1,000 begin.

Random Thoughts on the Day Before the Opening

  • Saturday, 6 August – Courtney and Kelly Hurley will compete for the USA in individual épée fencing. Its a long shot but if they were to both make the podium, they would become the first sisters to finish on the podium in an individual event at the Summer Olympics. Sisters have only done this twice before – both at the Winter Olympics. Here are all the siblings who have finished 1-2 at the Olympics in an individual event.

[table]

Brothers

John / Sumner Paine,pistol shooting,1896
Platt / Ben Adams,standing high jump,1912
Nedo / Aldo Nadi,sabre,1920
Jennison / Jack Heaton,skeleton,1928
Edoardo / Dario Mangiarotti,épée,1952
Raimondo / Piero D’Inzeo,jumping,1960
Phil / Steve Mahre,slalom,1984
Philipp / Simon Schoch,snowboard PGS,2006
Sisters
Christine / Marielle Goitschel,slalom / giant slalom,1964
Doris / Angelika Neuner,luge,1992
Justine / Chloe Dufour-Lapointe,moguls,2014

[/table]

  • If the Hurley sisters do not do that, and it would be an upset if they did, two Australian swimming sisters Cate and Bronte Campbell, have a strong chance to do this in the 100 freestyle (11 August) or 50 freestyle (13 August). Cate is favored to win in both events, and Bronte has a good chance for a medal in either event.
  • In shooting, the Georgian mother-son combo of Nino Salukvadze and Tsotne Machavariani will compete at Rio. This will make them the first mother-son to compete at the same Olympic Games. More on this can be found at https://olympstats.com/2016/05/03/mother-and-son-shooters-to-compete-in-rio/.
  • In athletics, Ashton Eaton will compete in the decathlon, looking to defend his title from 2012. His wife, Brianne Theisen-Eaton will compete in the heptathlon, and has a good shot at a gold medal in that event, although she is not the overwhelming favorite that her husband is. Eaton competes for the United States, while Theisen-Eaton represents Canada – they met in school at the University of Oregon. Should they both win gold medals, they will become the first husband-wife to win gold medals at the same Olympics, while representing different nations. See more on this at https://olympstats.com/2016/01/09/married-couples-winning-olympic-gold-medals/.

Rio Sports Lists – Final 5 Sports

Sports lists for Rio – today we’ll present you 5 record lists for sports on the 2016 Olympic Program – table tennis, taekwondo, trampoline, golf, and rugby sevens. Please refer to a previous post https://olympstats.com/2016/07/29/sports-files-for-rio/ for information about these lists. This completes the presentation of the sports statistical files in preparation for Rio.

Rio Sports Lists – 6 More

Sports lists for Rio – today we’ll present you 6 record lists for sports on the 2016 Olympic Program – archery, badminton, handball, modern pentathlon, rhythmic gymnastics, and synchronized swimming. Please refer to a previous post https://olympstats.com/2016/07/29/sports-files-for-rio/ for information about these lists.

Will Rio change the all-time medal table?

During every Olympics, all media outlets track the medal table: which nation has won the most medals? Of course, there’s also an all-time table that tallies all medals won since 1896. What can we expect to happen in Rio on this all-time ranking?

Embed from Getty Images

The US has won by far the most Olympic medals and would continue to lead even if another nation won all the 306 gold medals at stake in Rio.

One prediction we can confidently make is that the top 3 will not change. The United States is first with over a 1,000 golds and 2,700+ medals, more than double the totals of second placed Soviet Union. As there’s only 306 events held in Rio, that gap can never be closed – even if Lenin stood up from his mausoleum, refounded the USSR and had the team win every event. Even if we would add in the medals won by Russia and the 1992 Unified Team won prior to 1917 and after 1991, this would not be enough. Germany in third is 170 golds behind the Soviets, and almost 50 golds clear of the competition behind it, so that spot is secure.

Embed from Getty Images

Can the British keep the 4th place overall that Mo Farah helped them take in 2012?

By contrast, places 4, 5 and 6 on the all-time list are closely contested. Three nations vie for fourth place: Great Britain, France and Italy. The British took a lead with their impressive 29 golds at the home Games in 2012, but France is only three golds behind Britain (and 4 medals total). Italy is not lagging far behind, with five less Olympic titles medals won since 1896 (they are quite far behind in total medals, however). In theory, even 7th placed China could even clear the gap of 35 gold medals as they’ve won 30+ gold medals in the past three Games. Taking over Italy would require a poor showing of the Azzurri, though.

Embed from Getty Images

Russia’s medal performance for Rio is unclear due to doping related exclusions of many of its top athletes.

Under normal circumstances, it would be realistic to expect Russia to climb further into the top 10, as the gaps with East Germany (which will definitely not medal) and Sweden (whose showings at Beijing and London were amongst their poorest ever) are not that big. Of course, the exclusion of a sizeable part of the Russian team is  expected to have a negative impact on their totals. Also, the complete results of the doping re-tests of 2008 and 2012 are expected only after the Rio Games, and are thus not yet reflected in the results. This will certainly impact Russia’s medal totals as well.

Further down, Australia and Japan look to be overtaking Finland in the standings, while South Korea might overtake the Netherlands with a good performance in Brazil. The host nation itself, ranked 37th at the moment, will likely not climb a lot. It would need three golds and two silvers overtake idle Yugoslavia, while it could possibly move past Kenya.

Some nations might be entering the table with their first ever medals. In this article at the Official Rio 2016 site, nations tipped for this honour are Fiji, Kosovo, Bosnia Herzegovina, St. Kitts & Nevis, San Marino, Rwanda, Jordan and Honduras.

Below is the current all-time medal table. It includes all medals, including those won at the Winter Olympics as well as the Intercalated 1906 Olympics. It does not yet include corrections from the 2008 and 2012 doping retests.

[table]

#,Country,NOC,Golds,Silvers,Bronzes,Total

1,United States,USA,1086,866,755,2707
2,Soviet Union,URS,473,376,355,1204
3,Germany,GER,301,335,326,962
4,Great Britain,GBR,256,294,290,840
5,France,FRA,253,265,318,836
6,Italy,ITA,248,213,233,694
7,China,CHN,213,166,147,526
8,Sweden,SWE,197,209,239,645
9,East Germany,GDR,192,165,162,519
10,Russia,RUS,183,166,180,529
11,Norway,NOR,177,162,144,483
12,Hungary,HUN,170,153,173,496
13,Finland,FIN,148,148,176,472
14,Australia,AUS,143,159,185,487
15,Japan,JPN,140,143,162,445
16,Canada,CAN,122,157,174,453
17,Netherlands,NED,116,126,144,386
18,South Korea,KOR,107,99,90,296
19,Switzerland,SUI,105,120,116,341
20,Romania,ROU,88,94,120,302
21,Austria,AUT,84,118,122,324
22,Poland,POL,73,91,135,299
23,Cuba,CUB,71,65,66,202
24,West Germany,FRG,67,82,94,243
25,Unified Team,EUN,54,44,37,135
26,Bulgaria,BUL,52,87,81,220
27,Czechoslovakia,TCH,51,58,62,171
28,Denmark,DEN,46,76,73,195
29,Belgium,BEL,43,57,63,163
30,New Zealand,NZL,42,19,39,100
31,Greece,GRE,39,56,52,147
32,Turkey,TUR,39,25,24,88
33,Spain,ESP,38,59,36,133
34,Ukraine,UKR,35,28,59,122
35,Yugoslavia,YUG,26,32,29,87
36,Kenya,KEN,25,32,29,86
37,Brazil,BRA,23,30,55,108
38,South Africa,RSA,23,27,28,78
39,Czech Republic,CZE,21,24,23,68
40,Ethiopia,ETH,21,7,17,45
41,Belarus,BLR,18,28,44,90
42,Argentina,ARG,18,24,28,70
43,Jamaica,JAM,17,30,20,67
44,Kazakhstan,KAZ,17,20,22,59
45,Iran,IRI,15,20,25,60
46,North Korea,PRK,14,13,22,49
47,Mexico,MEX,13,21,27,61
48,Estonia,EST,13,11,16,40
49,Mixed team,MIX,12,8,8,28
50,Croatia,CRO,10,13,11,34
51,Slovakia,SVK,9,11,9,29
52,Ireland,IRL,9,9,13,31
53,India,IND,9,6,11,26
54,Egypt,EGY,7,8,9,24
55,Thailand,THA,7,6,11,24
56,Slovenia,SLO,6,10,18,34
57,Indonesia,INA,6,10,11,27
58,Azerbaijan,AZE,6,5,15,26
59,Georgia,GEO,6,5,14,25
60,Morocco,MAR,6,5,11,22
61,Lithuania,LTU,6,5,10,21
61,Uzbekistan,UZB,6,5,10,21
63,Algeria,ALG,5,2,8,15
64,Bahamas,BAH,5,2,5,12
65,Portugal,POR,4,8,11,23
66,Luxembourg,LUX,4,4,0,8
67,Latvia,LAT,3,15,8,26
68,Nigeria,NGR,3,8,12,23
69,Australasia,ANZ,3,4,5,12
70,Zimbabwe,ZIM,3,4,1,8
71,Pakistan,PAK,3,3,4,10
71,Tunisia,TUN,3,3,4,10
73,Dominican Republic,DOM,3,2,1,6
74,Cameroon,CMR,3,1,1,5
75,Mongolia,MGL,2,9,13,24
76,Chinese Taipei,TPE,2,7,12,21
77,Chile,CHI,2,7,4,13
78,Colombia,COL,2,6,11,19
79,Trinidad and Tobago,TTO,2,6,10,18
80,Serbia and Montenegro,SCG,2,4,3,9
81,Uganda,UGA,2,3,2,7
82,Venezuela,VEN,2,2,8,12
83,Uruguay,URU,2,2,6,10
84,Liechtenstein,LIE,2,2,5,9
85,Peru,PER,1,3,0,4
86,Armenia,ARM,1,2,9,12
87,Serbia,SRB,1,2,4,7
88,Israel,ISR,1,1,5,7
89,Costa Rica,CRC,1,1,2,4
90,Hong Kong,HKG,1,1,1,3
90,Syria,SYR,1,1,1,3
92,Ecuador,ECU,1,1,0,2
93,Panama,PAN,1,0,2,3
94,Mozambique,MOZ,1,0,1,2
94,Suriname,SUR,1,0,1,2
96,Burundi,BDI,1,0,0,1
96,Grenada,GRN,1,0,0,1
96,United Arab Emirates,UAE,1,0,0,1
99,Namibia,NAM,0,4,0,4
100,Malaysia,MAS,0,3,3,6
101,Philippines,PHI,0,2,7,9
102,Puerto Rico,PUR,0,2,6,8
103,Moldova,MDA,0,2,5,7
104,Iceland,ISL,0,2,2,4
104,Lebanon,LIB,0,2,2,4
104,Singapore,SIN,0,2,2,4
107,Sri Lanka,SRI,0,2,0,2
107,Tanzania,TAN,0,2,0,2
107,Vietnam,VIE,0,2,0,2
110,Bohemia,BOH,0,1,5,6
111,Ghana,GHA,0,1,3,4
112,Individual Olympic Athletes,IOA,0,1,2,3
112,Kyrgyzstan,KGZ,0,1,2,3
112,Saudi Arabia,KSA,0,1,2,3
112,Tajikistan,TJK,0,1,2,3
116,Haiti,HAI,0,1,1,2
116,United Arab Republic,UAR,0,1,1,2
116,Zambia,ZAM,0,1,1,2
119,Botswana,BOT,0,1,0,1
119,Cote d’Ivoire,CIV,0,1,0,1
119,Cyprus,CYP,0,1,0,1
119,Gabon,GAB,0,1,0,1
119,Guatemala,GUA,0,1,0,1
119,Montenegro,MNE,0,1,0,1
119,Netherlands Antilles,AHO,0,1,0,1
119,Paraguay,PAR,0,1,0,1
119,Senegal,SEN,0,1,0,1
119,Sudan,SUD,0,1,0,1
119,Tonga,TGA,0,1,0,1
119,United States Virgin Islands,ISV,0,1,0,1
131,Qatar,QAT,0,0,4,4
132,Afghanistan,AFG,0,0,2,2
132,Kuwait,KUW,0,0,2,2
132,West Indies Federation,WIF,0,0,2,2
135,Bahrain,BRN,0,0,1,1
135,Barbados,BAR,0,0,1,1
135,Bermuda,BER,0,0,1,1
135,Djibouti,DJI,0,0,1,1
135,Eritrea,ERI,0,0,1,1
135,Guyana,GUY,0,0,1,1
135,Iraq,IRQ,0,0,1,1
135,Macedonia,MKD,0,0,1,1
135,Mauritius,MRI,0,0,1,1
135,Monaco,MON,0,0,1,1
135,Niger,NIG,0,0,1,1
135,Togo,TOG,0,0,1,1[/table]

Rio vs Other Summer Olympic Host Cities

So how does Rio stack up against other Summer Olympic host cities in terms of population, climate, location, and other geographic factors. It is known that is the first South American city to host an Olympics. It is only the third city from the Southern Hemisphere to host an Olympics, following Melbourne in 1956 and Sydney in  2000. Attached is a small file that compares all the Olympic Summer hosts to see how Rio ranks among them.

Costs are also usually analyzed for Olympic host cities and we will do that as well, but usually full data on that is not announced until after the Olympics end.

Summer City Stats

All the Olympic Stats You'll Ever Need