During every Olympics, all media outlets track the medal table: which nation has won the most medals? Of course, there’s also an all-time table that tallies all medals won since 1896. What can we expect to happen in Rio on this all-time ranking?

The US has won by far the most Olympic medals and would continue to lead even if another nation won all the 306 gold medals at stake in Rio.

One prediction we can confidently make is that the top 3 will not change. The United States is first with over a 1,000 golds and 2,700+ medals, more than double the totals of second placed Soviet Union. As there’s only 306 events held in Rio, that gap can never be closed – even if Lenin stood up from his mausoleum, refounded the USSR and had the team win every event. Even if we would add in the medals won by Russia and the 1992 Unified Team won prior to 1917 and after 1991, this would not be enough. Germany in third is 170 golds behind the Soviets, and almost 50 golds clear of the competition behind it, so that spot is secure.

Can the British keep the 4th place overall that Mo Farah helped them take in 2012?

By contrast, places 4, 5 and 6 on the all-time list are closely contested. Three nations vie for fourth place: Great Britain, France and Italy. The British took a lead with their impressive 29 golds at the home Games in 2012, but France is only three golds behind Britain (and 4 medals total). Italy is not lagging far behind, with five less Olympic titles medals won since 1896 (they are quite far behind in total medals, however). In theory, even 7th placed China could even clear the gap of 35 gold medals as they’ve won 30+ gold medals in the past three Games. Taking over Italy would require a poor showing of the Azzurri, though.

Russia’s medal performance for Rio is unclear due to doping related exclusions of many of its top athletes.

Under normal circumstances, it would be realistic to expect Russia to climb further into the top 10, as the gaps with East Germany (which will definitely not medal) and Sweden (whose showings at Beijing and London were amongst their poorest ever) are not that big. Of course, the exclusion of a sizeable part of the Russian team is  expected to have a negative impact on their totals. Also, the complete results of the doping re-tests of 2008 and 2012 are expected only after the Rio Games, and are thus not yet reflected in the results. This will certainly impact Russia’s medal totals as well.

Further down, Australia and Japan look to be overtaking Finland in the standings, while South Korea might overtake the Netherlands with a good performance in Brazil. The host nation itself, ranked 37th at the moment, will likely not climb a lot. It would need three golds and two silvers overtake idle Yugoslavia, while it could possibly move past Kenya.

Some nations might be entering the table with their first ever medals. In this article at the Official Rio 2016 site, nations tipped for this honour are Fiji, Kosovo, Bosnia Herzegovina, St. Kitts & Nevis, San Marino, Rwanda, Jordan and Honduras.

Below is the current all-time medal table. It includes all medals, including those won at the Winter Olympics as well as the Intercalated 1906 Olympics. It does not yet include corrections from the 2008 and 2012 doping retests.