All posts by bmallon

The Sochi Medal Table Revisited – Redux#2

Another day, another dollar. Well, Russia does not like the US dollar so, for them, another day, another 5 Russian doping disqualifications from the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Please see details in my previous two posts on this topic for information about the two medal ranking systems – https://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/ and https://olympstats.com/2017/11/24/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited-redux-1/

Here is what has happened to the first 10 places in the Sochi medal standings, as of today:

[table]

Original,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

23-Feb-14,RUS,13,11,9,33,1,1

23-Feb-14,USA,9,7,12,28,2,4

23-Feb-14,NOR,11,5,10,26,3,2

23-Feb-14,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,3

23-Feb-14,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

23-Feb-14,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

23-Feb-14,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

23-Feb-14,FRA,4,4,7,15,8,10

23-Feb-14,SWE,2,7,6,15,9,14

23-Feb-14,SUI,6,3,2,11,10,7

[/table]

As of 27 November, Russia has dropped from 1st to 5th (US system) and 4th (International system).

[table]

Current,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

27-Nov-17,USA,9,7,12,28,1,3

27-Nov-17,NOR,11,5,10,26,2,1

27-Nov-17,CAN,10,10,5,25,3,2

27-Nov-17,NED,8,7,9,24,4,5

27-Nov-17,RUS,9,5,8,22,5,4

27-Nov-17,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

27-Nov-17,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

27-Nov-17,FRA,4,4,7,15,8,10

27-Nov-17,SWE,2,7,6,15,9,14

27-Nov-17,SUI,6,3,2,11,10,7

[/table]

Again, please refer to my earlier posts, but here is what happens with perfect re-allocation, i.e., everybody in 4th moves up to bronze, bronze medalists move up to silver, etc. This is an idealized situation and very unlikely to happen in every case. If it did, Russia would actually move up to 2 bronze medals they did not receive originally. I sincerely doubt the IOC would allow that to happen, given the situation.

[table]

Possible,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

Possible,NOR,11,7,11,29,1,1

Possible,USA,9,10,10,29,2,4

Possible,CAN,10,10,5,25,3,2

Possible,RUS,10,5,9,24,4,3

Possible,NED,8,8,8,24,5,5

Possible,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

Possible,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

Possible,FRA,4,5,6,15,8,10

Possible,SWE,2,8,5,15,9,14

Possible,SUI,7,2,2,11,10,7

Possible,CHN,3,4,3,10,11,12

Possible,CZE,2,4,3,9,12,15

Possible,ITA,0,2,7,9,13,22

Possible,KOR,3,3,2,8,14,13

Possible,SLO,2,2,4,8,15,16

Possible,JPN,1,4,3,8,16,17

Possible,BLR,5,0,2,7,17,8

Possible,POL,4,1,1,6,18,11

Possible,FIN,1,3,1,5,19,18

Possible,LAT,2,0,3,5,20,23

Possible,GBR,1,1,2,4,21,19

Possible,AUS,0,2,1,3,22,24

Possible,UKR,1,1,0,2,23,20

Possible,SVK,1,0,0,1,24,21

Possible,CRO,0,1,0,1,25,25

Possible,KAZ,0,0,1,1,26,26

[/table]

More to come, surely.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited – Redux #1

Aleksandr Zubkov, Russian bobsledder who won gold medals in both bobsled events in Sochi, was just disqualified, along with Olga Fatkulina, who won a silver medal in women’s 500 metre speed skating.

How does this affect the Sochi medal tables? See our post of two days ago on the topic of the changes in the Sochi medal table – https://olympstats.com/2017/11/22/the-sochi-medal-table-revisited/.

Here is what happens now, and I’m only going to list the top 5 nations in the first 2 tables, as there are no changes below that level.

[table]

Original,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

23-Feb-14,RUS,13,11,9,33,1,1

23-Feb-14,USA,9,7,12,28,2,4

23-Feb-14,NOR,11,5,10,26,3,2

23-Feb-14,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,3

23-Feb-14,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

[/table]

With the new disqualifications today, here is what happens.

By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Norway in 2nd, Canada and 3rd, and Russia dropping to 4th. By the International system, now the rankings change quite a bit, with Norway in 1st, Canada in 2nd, the USA in 3rd, and Russia dropping from 1st to 4th. For an explanation of the two ranking systems, see yesterday’s post (noted above).

Please also note that the team disqualifications in bobsled are not automatic, as @OlympicStatman pointed out in a series of tweets, because of IBSF rules.

[table]

Current,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

22-Nov-17,USA,9,7,12,28,1,3

22-Nov-17,NOR,11,5,10,26,2,1

22-Nov-17,CAN,10,10,5,25,3,2

22-Nov-17,RUS,9,7,8,24,4,4

22-Nov-17,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

[/table]

Now as we did 2 days ago, we’ll show you what happens if all medals are re-allocated, i.e., 4th moves up to 3rd, etc. As stated 2 days ago, there will be appeals, and it will take awhile and there is no guarantee all these medals will be re-allocated, but this is what it could look like. Here we go down to 19th/17th place since Latvia would move up in 4-man bobsled and is affected. Here, Russia actually stays in 3rd in both systems, because it could theoretically move up to a bronze medal in 4-man bobsled, after the Zubkov team disqualification, although that may be a stretch (they are also being investigated, it is rumored).

[table]

Possible,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

Possible,NOR,11,6,12,29,1,1

Possible,USA,9,10,10,29,2,4

Possible,RUS,10,7,9,26,3,3

Possible,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,2

Possible,NED,8,8,8,24,5,5

Possible,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

Possible,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

Possible,FRA,4,5,6,15,8,10

Possible,SWE,2,8,5,15,9,14

Possible,SUI,7,2,2,11,10,7

Possible,CHN,3,4,3,10,11,12

Possible,KOR,3,3,2,8,12,13

Possible,CZE,2,4,2,8,13,15

Possible,SLO,2,2,4,8,14,16

Possible,JPN,1,4,3,8,15,18

Possible,ITA,0,2,6,8,16,23

Possible,BLR,5,0,2,7,17,8

Possible,POL,4,1,1,6,18,11

Possible,LAT,2,0,3,5,19,17

[/table]

As we said yesterday, there is certainly still more to come.

The Sochi Medal Table – Revisited

This morning the IOC announced the disqualification of four Russian skeleton sliders from the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. In the process Russia lost 2 more medals from Sochi – gold in the men’s (Aleksandr Tretyakov) and bronze in the women’s (Yelena Nikitina). The Russians had previously had 6 cross-country skiers disqualified from Sochi and lost 4 medals in the process.

Multiple tweets have appeared since stating that the US now moves up to the top of the Sochi medal table. Other tweets have said that USA slider Katie Uehlander will now move up to a bronze medal in women’s skeleton, and that Latvia’s sliding brothers, Martins and Tomass Dukurs, will move up to gold and bronze medals and become the 7th siblings to be “on the podium” in an individual Winter Olympic event.

As Lee Corso likes to say on College GameDay, “Not so fast, my friends.” It’s way more complex than all that.

First of all, it is true that 10 Russians have been tentatively disqualified from Sochi, and if the disqualifications stand, they have lost 6 medals – 2 gold, 3 silvers, and a bronze. However, several of the athletes have already appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), and that process will take months. So it is possible several of the DQs could be reversed, although I personally doubt that.

Secondly, if the disqualifications stand, medals could be upgraded but that also takes time and review by the IOC. It is not automatic. Katie Uehlander could move up to a bronze medal, that is true, but the process needs to run its course.

Thirdly, in one sense, as of today, the US is now on top of the Sochi medal table, but in another sense, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table. How’s that again?

There are two systems for ranking national medals – the US or North American system that ranks by medals, gold, silver, and bronze; and the European or International system that ranks by gold, silver, and bronze. By the US/NA system, as of today, the USA does lead the Sochi medal table, but by the Euro/Inter. system Russia still leads the Sochi medal table today.

Here is the original Sochi medal table on 23 February 2014, the last day of the 2014 Winter Olympics, with Russia leading the table by either ranking system. The USA is in second by the US system, and Norway is in second by the International system, with the USA 4th in that system, still trailing Canada.

[table]

Original,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

23-Feb-14,RUS,13,11,9,33,1,1

23-Feb-14,USA,9,7,12,28,2,4

23-Feb-14,NOR,11,5,10,26,3,2

23-Feb-14,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,3

23-Feb-14,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

23-Feb-14,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

23-Feb-14,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

23-Feb-14,FRA,4,4,7,15,8,10

23-Feb-14,SWE,2,7,6,15,9,14

23-Feb-14,SUI,6,3,2,11,10,7

23-Feb-14,CHN,3,4,2,9,11,12

23-Feb-14,KOR,3,3,2,8,12,13

23-Feb-14,CZE,2,4,2,8,13,15

23-Feb-14,SLO,2,2,4,8,14,16

23-Feb-14,JPN,1,4,3,8,15,17

23-Feb-14,ITA,0,2,6,8,16,22

23-Feb-14,BLR,5,0,1,6,17,8

23-Feb-14,POL,4,1,1,6,18,11

23-Feb-14,FIN,1,3,1,5,19,18

23-Feb-14,GBR,1,1,2,4,20,19

23-Feb-14,LAT,0,2,2,4,21,23

23-Feb-14,AUS,0,2,1,3,22,24

23-Feb-14,UKR,1,0,1,2,23,20

23-Feb-14,SVK,1,0,0,1,24,21

23-Feb-14,CRO,0,1,0,1,25,25

23-Feb-14,KAZ,0,0,1,1,26,26

[/table]

Assuming all the disqualifications are upheld, here is what the Sochi medal table looks like today. By the US system, the USA is #1, followed by Russia, despite losing 6 medals, and Norway in 3rd. By the International system, there is no actual change in the rankings with Russia still #1, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th.

[table]

Current,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

22-Nov-17,USA,9,7,12,28,1,4

22-Nov-17,RUS,11,8,8,27,2,1

22-Nov-17,NOR,11,5,10,26,3,2

22-Nov-17,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,3

22-Nov-17,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

22-Nov-17,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

22-Nov-17,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

22-Nov-17,FRA,4,4,7,15,8,10

22-Nov-17,SWE,2,7,6,15,9,14

22-Nov-17,SUI,6,3,2,11,10,7

22-Nov-17,CHN,3,4,2,9,11,12

22-Nov-17,KOR,3,3,2,8,12,13

22-Nov-17,CZE,2,4,2,8,13,15

22-Nov-17,SLO,2,2,4,8,14,16

22-Nov-17,JPN,1,4,3,8,15,17

22-Nov-17,ITA,0,2,6,8,16,22

22-Nov-17,BLR,5,0,1,6,17,8

22-Nov-17,POL,4,1,1,6,18,11

22-Nov-17,FIN,1,3,1,5,19,18

22-Nov-17,GBR,1,1,2,4,20,19

22-Nov-17,LAT,0,2,2,4,21,23

22-Nov-17,AUS,0,2,1,3,22,24

22-Nov-17,UKR,1,0,1,2,23,20

22-Nov-17,SVK,1,0,0,1,24,21

22-Nov-17,CRO,0,1,0,1,25,25

22-Nov-17,KAZ,0,0,1,1,26,26

[/table]

Now you ask, what happens if all the medals are re-allocated, by moving up the 4th place finisher to 3rd and a bronze medal, etc.? I hate to go there, but will do so, just because you’re such nice guys. Here is what the current “possible” rankings will look like if this occurs, and I am moving up everybody, although I doubt that will actually happen.

Norway now leads by the USA system, with the USA 2nd, and Russia 3rd. By the international system, Russia still leads the Sochi medal table, with Norway 2nd, Canada 3rd, and the USA 4th – no change from the original standings.

[table]

Possible,NOC,G,S,B,TM,USRnk,EuRnk

Possible,NOR,11,6,12,29,1,2

Possible,USA,9,8,12,29,2,4

Possible,RUS,12,8,7,27,3,1

Possible,CAN,10,10,5,25,4,3

Possible,NED,8,7,9,24,5,5

Possible,GER,8,6,5,19,6,6

Possible,AUT,4,8,5,17,7,9

Possible,FRA,4,5,6,15,8,10

Possible,SWE,2,8,5,15,9,14

Possible,SUI,6,3,2,11,10,7

Possible,CHN,3,4,2,9,11,12

Possible,KOR,3,3,2,8,12,13

Possible,CZE,2,4,2,8,13,15

Possible,SLO,2,2,4,8,14,16

Possible,JPN,1,4,3,8,15,17

Possible,ITA,0,2,6,8,16,23

Possible,BLR,5,0,2,7,17,8

Possible,POL,4,1,1,6,18,11

Possible,FIN,1,3,1,5,19,18

Possible,LAT,1,1,3,5,20,19

Possible,GBR,1,1,2,4,21,20

Possible,AUS,0,2,1,3,22,24

Possible,UKR,1,0,1,2,23,21

Possible,SVK,1,0,0,1,24,22

Possible,CRO,0,1,0,1,25,25

Possible,KAZ,0,0,1,1,26,26

[/table]

It is unlikely this will happen that way in every case, so this is an idealized situation. For this to occur, the 3rd-place finisher in the 50 km cross-country would move up to a gold medal, but that is another Russian, Ilya Chernousov. I doubt he will be moved up, given the opprobrium surrounding the Russian team in Sochi. If he is not advanced, then Norway’s Martin Johnsrud Sundby, who originally finished 4th in that event, cannot move up to the silver medal.

And to further complicate matters, Sundby had a doping violation revealed in January 2015, and after appeals, was banned from sport for 2 months (it was only an asthma inhaler) in July 2016, after an appeal to CAS. It is unlikely the IOC would move up an athlete since disqualified for doping.

So there you have it. Much more complicated than you might think. And there is certainly more to come.

North Korea at the Winter Olympics

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPR Korea, or PRK to the IOC), known to most of the world as North Korea, has recently qualified a pairs figure skating duo (Ryom Tae-Ok and Kim Ju-Sik) for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics. It was not certain any North Korean athletes would qualify, and no North Koreans competed at Sochi in 2014.

DPR Korea first competed at the Olympics in 1964 and it was at the Innsbruck Winter Olympics, with a team of 13 athletes, 6 men and 7 women. Including 1964 they have competed 8 previous times at the Winter Olympics, missing 1968, 1976, 1980, 1994, 2002, and 2014.

DPR Korea has had two Winter Olympic medalists, both women speedskaters. In 1964 Han Pil-Hwa won a silver medal in 3,000 metres speedskating, while in 1992, Hwang Ok-Sil won a bronze medal in 500 metres short-track speedskating. Here is the complete record of their previous Winter Olympic participation.

[table]

WinOly,Men,Women,Total

1964,6,7,13

1972,0,6,6

1984,3,3,6

1988,3,3,6

1992,9,11,20

1998,2,6,8

2006,2,4,6

2010,1,1,2

[/table]

[table]

DPR Korea (North),###,1G,2G

Total,62,57,5

Men,25,24,1

Women,37,33,4

[/table]

[table]

Men – Sport,Nation,###,1G,2G

Alpine Skiing,PRK,1,1,0

Cross-Country Skiing,PRK,4,4,0

Figure Skating,PRK,7,7,0

Speedskating,PRK,10,9,1

Short-Track Speedskating,PRK,3,3,0

[/table]

[table]

Women – Sport,Nation,###,1G,2G

Alpine Skiing,PRK,1,1,0

Cross-Country Skiing,PRK,4,4,0

Figure Skating,PRK,6,6,0

Speedskating,PRK,19,16,3

Short-Track Speedskating,PRK,7,6,1

[/table]

2008-12 Olympic Doping Re-Test – An Update-Update

OK, time for our occasional update on the status of the doping re-tests from the 2008 and 2012 Olympics. Our last post on this topic was in April 2017 – see https://olympstats.com/2017/04/03/2008-2012-doping-re-tests-an-update/, while we first posted about his in November 2016, urged on by Roger Pielke, which we appreciated. For that original post see https://olympstats.com/2016/11/28/summary-of-the-ioc-re-testing-from-2008-2012-to-date/. We’ll keep this a little shorter and just summarize more recent findings.

First of all, there has not been much to update since April 2017. At that time we noted that there had been 182 positive PED tests from the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, and as of 22 Sep, there are now 190 positive tests. A few came out in later April 2017 and one in August but not nearly as much activity as 2015-16.

We are including all positive tests that affect 2008-12 Olympic results. This includes positive tests done in pre-Games testing, original testing at the Olympic Games, re-testing of samples done at a later date, and retroactive disqualifications for other positive tests in the peri-Olympic era that were announced later.

Once again, the former Soviet republics make up the bulk of the nations with positive tests. Here are the 11 nations with the most positive tests:

[table]

NOC,###

Russia,53

Belarus,23

Ukraine,20

Turkey,14

Kazakhstan,12

Azerbaijan,6

Moldova,5

Armenia,4

China,4

Greece,4

Uzbekistan,4

[/table]

And here is a current summary of the 5 sports most affected in 2008-12:

[table]

Sport,###

Athletics,108

Weightlifting,51

Wrestling,9

Equestrian Events,7

Cycling,6

[/table]

Finally, the 5 drugs or violations most responsible for positive tests from 2008-12:

[table]

Substance/Violation,###

Turinabol (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone),83

Stanozolol (anabolic steroid),41

Biological passport offense,34

Oxandrolone,9

Erythropoietin (EPO),7

[/table]

Nothing particularly new in any of that.

Now we can look a little bit more at medal re-assignments. We danced around that a bit in the first two posts on the subject, because medal re-assignments are announced slowly (if at all), and are often subject to litigation or arbitration at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Witness the case of Nesta Carter, Jamaican sprinter who won a gold medal in 2008 in the 4×100 relay, alongside one Usain Bolt. Carter had a positive re-test that was announced in late 2016, but it is still in arbitration at the CAS and no final decision has been announced, so the medal has not been removed, neither from Carter, nor Bolt, and thus no medal(s) has/have been re-assigned.

But here are the medal re-assignments we do know about:

  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 10,000 metres.  Elvan Abeylegesse (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Shalane Flanagan (USA) to silver, and Linet Masai (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 4×100 relay.  Russia [Gold] disqualified. Advance Belgium to gold, Nigeria to silver, and Brazil to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jamaica to silver, and Great Britain to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics 5,000 metres.  Elvan Abeylegesse (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Meseret Defar (ETH) to silver, and Sylvia Kibet (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Discus throw.  Yarelis Barrios (CUB) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Olena Antonova (UKR) to silver and Song Aimin (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics High jump.  Anna Chicherova (RUS) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Chaunté Lowe (USA) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Hammer throw.  Oksana Menkova (BLR) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Yipsi Moreno (CUB) to gold, and Zhang Wenxiu (CHN) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Javelin throw.  Mariya Abakumova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Christina Obergföll (GER) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Long jump.  Tatyana Lebedeva (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Blessing Okagbare (NGR) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Shot put.  Nataliya Khoroneko (BLR) [Silver] and Nadezhda Ostapchuk (BLR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Misleydis González (CUB) to silver, and Gong Lijiao (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Athletics Steeplechase.  Yekaterina Volkova (RUS) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Tatyana Petrova-Arkhipova (RUS) to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Great Britain to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Athletics Pole vault.  Denys Yurchenko (UKR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Derek Miles (USA) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Modern Pentathlon Individual.  Viktoriya Tereshchuk (UKR) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Anastasiya Samusevich (BLR) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting +75 kg.  Olha Korobka (UKR) [Silver] and Mariya Grabovetskaya (KAZ) [Bronze] disqualified. Advance Ele Opeloge (SAM) to silver, and Maryam Usman (NGR) to bronze.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 48 kg.  Chen Xiexia (CHN) [Gold] and Sibel Özkan (TUR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Chen Wei-Ling (TPE) to gold.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 58 kg.  Marina Shainova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jong-Ae O (PRK) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 63 kg.  Irina Nekrasova (KAZ) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Ying-Chi Lu (TPE) to silver.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 69 kg.  Liu Chunhong (CHN) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Oksana Slivenko (RUS) to gold.
  • 2008 Women’s Weightlifting 75 kg.  Cao Lei (CHN) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Alla Vazhenina (KAZ) to gold.
  • 2008 Men’s Weightlifting 94 kg.  Ilya Ilyin (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Szymon Kołecki (POL) to gold.
  • 2008 Men’s Wrestling 120 kg Greco-Roman.  Khasan Baroyev (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Mindaugas Mizgaitis (LTU) to silver, and Yury Patrikeyev (ARM) to bronze.
  • 2008 Men’s Wrestling 60 kg Greco-Roman.  Vitaliy Rəhimov (AZE) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Nurbakyt Tengizbayev (KAZ) to silver, and Ruslan Tumenbayev (KGZ) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 800 metres.  Mariya Savinova (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Caster Semenya (RSA) to gold, and Yekaterina Poistogova (RUS) to silver.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 1,500 metres.  Asli Cakir (TUR) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Maryam Jamal (BRN) to gold. No other advancement.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 20 km walk.  Olga Kaniskina (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Qieyang Shenjie (CHN) to silver, and Liu Hong (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics 4×400 relay.  Russia [Silver] disqualified. Advance Jamaica to silver, and the Ukraine to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Discus throw.  Darya Pishchalnikova (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Li Yanfeng (CHN) to silver.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Hammer throw.  Tatyana Lysenko (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Anita Włodarczyk (POL) to gold, Betty Heidler (GER) to silver, and Zhang Wenxiu (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Shot put.  Yevgeniya Kolodko (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Gong Lijiao (CHN) to silver, and Li Ling (CHN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Athletics Steeplechase.  Yuliya Zaripova (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Habiba Ghribi (TUN) to gold, Sofia Assefa (ETH) to silver, and Milcah Chemos Cheywa (KEN) to bronze.
  • 2012 Men’s Athletics 50 km walk.  Sergey Kirdyapkin (RUS) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Jared Tallent (AUS) to gold, Si Tianfeng (CHN) to silver, and Robbie Heffernan (IRL) to bronze.
  • 2012 Men’s Athletics Javelin throw.  Oleksandr P’iatnytsia (UKR) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Antti Ruuskanen (FIN) to silver and Vitezslav Vesely (CZE) to bronze.
  • 2012 Women’s Weightlifting 53 kg.  Zulfiya Chinshanlo (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Shu-Ching Hsu (TPE) to gold.
  • 2012 Women’s Weightlifting 63 kg.  Maiya Maneza (KAZ) [Gold] disqualified. Advance Christine Girard (CAN) to gold.
  • 2012 Men’s Weightlifting 85 kg.  Apti Aukhadov (RUS) [Silver] disqualified. Advance Kianoush Rostami (IRI) to silver.

I will say, as an Olympic statistician, that trying to keep up with these disqualifications and medal re-assignments, and changing all the results, is one of the more challenging things we face.

There will be more as several others are under consideration and, as noted, several are under arbitration with the CAS. The IOC has not always made overt announcements of these medal re-assignments so it can be very difficult to keep track of this, although we have been in contact with people at the IOC to stay on top of it.

So as of mid-September 2017 that is the status of the 2008-12 Olympic doping testing – again, because of the uncertainty in some of the medal re-assignments, please understand that it is to the best of our knowledge.

Olympic Costs and Venue Construction

A few months ago we looked at Olympic costs and how they related to both the number of athletes at the Olympics and the number of events contested, correcting all the figures against inflation. The post can be seen here – https://olympstats.com/2017/06/19/olympic-costs-rio-2016-and-future-projections/.

In that post we briefly touched on venue construction being affected by the number of events but did not analyze it deeply. Venue construction has been mentioned a lot in the recent awarding of the Games to Paris (2024) and Los Angeles (2028), in which Paris noted it had only to build “a few venues” including the Olympic Village and a media centre, while Los Angeles promised it did not need to build a single venue, a fact I look at somewhat dubiously.

When Peter Ueberroth was named head of the Los Angeles Organizing Committee for the 1984 Olympics, he famously later noted that his first project was to go and read all the previous Official Reports, to get some handle on Olympic Costs and what affects them. He did this at the Helms Foundation Library, which no longer exists, but has been subsumed within the LA84 Foundation Library in Los Angeles, a direct offspring of the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics.

Ueberroth noted that, to him, the most important and biggest cost faced by organizing committees (OCOGs) was the need to build venues and he decided he would host the 1984 Olympics by building as few of them as possible. He was helped by the fact that Los Angeles has and had myriad athletic facilities that he was able to use. He did end up having to build a velodrome, a swim stadium, and shooting range, but was able to get the velodrome and swim stadium paid for by sponsors – 7-Eleven and McDonalds, respectively.

So it appears that building venues and stadia is important in terms of the costs of the Olympics, but the question is how important is it, and can we estimate final Olympic costs based on how many venues the OCOG have to build? And is there a way to determine these figures?

Turns out, our Olympic stat group, the OlyMADMen, has compiled information on the venues of all the Olympics, in addition all the other facts our database contains. The venues can be found at our main site – www.olympedia.org – which for now is a private site, although we can provide access. Here is one of those pages of venues:

Further, we have detailed information on each venue, including, in most cases, the dates on which they were constructed. So we have a fairly good estimate of how any venues were constructed for each Olympics. To make this estimate, we made the assumption that any venue built within four years of the Olympics at which it served as a venue was likely constructed for that Olympics.

And what did we find? Here is the table of venue construction since the 1960 Roma Olympics, listing the percentage of all venues that were constructed specifically for each Olympic Games:

[table]

Year,Host City,Venue%

1960,Roma,37.9%

1964,Tokyo,43.3%

1968,Mexico City,24.2%

1972,Munich,30.3%

1976,Montréal,29.2%

1980,Moscow,19.2%

1984,Los Angeles,23.3%

1988,Seoul,46.9%

1992,Barcelona,43.6%

1996,Atlanta,27.6%

2000,Sydney,51.7%

2004,Athens,67.6%

2008,Beijing,67.6%

2012,London,37.9%

2016,Rio de Janeiro,54.1%

[/table]

That doesn’t tell us much, although Los Angeles and Atlanta did not build many venues, and notably, Moscow in 1980 especially did not.

In our last post on Olympic costs, we looked carefully at how those costs were related to the number of athletes and the number of events. Venues are directly related to events, although you might not think so. But when you add new events, you may need to build new venues. Think of whitewater canoeing, which requires a completely new, fairly expensive venue for only a few events added onto the canoeing program. Or BMX cycling and mountain biking, which each require new venues for the cycling program, although the mountain bike venue is relatively construction free.

So since venues and events are related, we preferred to look at how venue construction related to costs per athlete at each Olympic Games. Here are the numbers for venue construction percentage and costs per athlete since 1960, with all figures corrected against inflation, using 2000 US dollars:

[table]

Year,Host City,Venue%,Cost/Athlete

1960,Roma,37.9%,$85658

1964,Tokyo,43.3%,$2294729

1968,Mexico City,24.2%,$176132

1972,Munich,30.3%,$392644

1976,Montréal,29.2%,$763404

1980,Moscow,19.2%,$920500

1984,Los Angeles,23.3%,$136960

1988,Seoul,46.9%,$712264

1992,Barcelona,43.6%,$918012

1996,Atlanta,27.6%,$178787

2000,Sydney,51.7%,$214034

2004,Athens,67.6%,$994191

2008,Beijing,67.6%,$2246903

2012,London,37.9%,$759428

2016,Rio de Janeiro,54.1%,$823864

[/table]

A couple of Games are obvious outliers here. Mainly Tokyo 1964 and Beijing 2008 are by far the most expensive Olympic Games ever (talking only Summer Olympics), which we knew. Further, omitting those 2 outliers, the modern era of costs and construction seems to begin in 1972, so we looked at venue construction vs cost/athlete since 1972, and omitted the absurdly expensive Beijing Olympics. Here is what that comparative table looks like, ranked in ascending order of venue construction percentage (VCP):

[table]

Year,VCP,Cost/Athlete

1980,19.2%,$920500

1984,23.3%,$136960

1996,27.6%,$178787

1976,29.2%,$763404

1972,30.3%,$392644

2012,37.9%,$759428

1992,43.6%,$918012

1988,46.9%,$712264

2000,51.7%,$214034

2016,54.1%,$823864

2004,67.6%,$994191

[/table]

Is there anything we can make of this table, which seems to jump around quite a bit? Here is what the chart looks like for this table:

The dots on the chart are the data points, comparing costs against VCP, while the straight line is the best fit denoting the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC). The PCC for this comparison is 0.3671. For those not familiar with PCC it analyzes if two sets of data are correlated together, i.e., if one moves up, does the other move up, and vice-versa. The PCC can range from 1 to -1. A PCC of 1 indicates a perfect correlation between two data sets, which rarely exists, while a a PCC of -1 is a perfect negative correlation, meaning if one set of data moves up, the other always moves down. A PCC of 0 equals no significant correlation in either direction.

So what does a PCC of 0.3671 mean? Unfortunately, there is no hard answer to that and it is open to interpretation. It is a positive number, meaning there is some correlation. But it is not very close to 1 so it is, at best, only a fair correlation between Olympic costs per athlete and VCP. Checking the PCC for its statistical significance, one finds it is weak, with a p-value between 0.15 and 0.10.

So this analysis somewhat supports Peter Ueberroth’s original contention, although not strongly. The number of athletes and number of events may still be a better predictor of overall Olympic costs, although venue construction certainly figures into the equation, at least to a degree, and it is directly related to the number of events.

USA OLYMPIANS AND THEIR COLLEGES

This will be somewhat of a different post as it will deal only with USA Olympians. I don’t often do that, trying to always deal with the international set of Olympians but there are some reasons for this.

The post deals with USA Olympians and their college affiliations. This is somewhat unique to the USA that has a strong collegiate sports program, while most other nations focus on club sports.

Further, in some of the work I do with the US Olympic Committee (USOC) I am often asked which states have the most Olympians. That’s a difficult question to answer, trying to tell where somebody is “from.” I am a case in point – born in New Jersey, mostly raised in Massachusetts, lived most of my life in North Carolina, and now live in New Hampshire and South Carolina, I’ve lived in 10 states and 1 Canadian Province. Where the hell am I “from”?

So my default was to list athletes that had been born in a state, died in a state, and attended college in the state, which gave pretty good lists. Unfortunately our database of USA Olympians and their colleges was incomplete.

The reason for that is that we list the affiliations of athletes, but only those at the time of their Olympic participation. So if they attended Harvard, but later competed in the Olympics for the New York Athletic Club, Harvard would not be listed. So I felt like I had to do a fairly complex search to track down as many college affiliations as I could.

It is a Sisyphean task, and one that can never be completed. As I type this, somebody is enrolling in graduate school that I have “missed,” and the list will change yearly, and probably more frequently than that. But with the able assistance of Hilary Evans (@OlyStatman), we’ve come up with very complete lists of USA Olympians and the college affiliations, many of them attending multiple colleges.

As in my day job as a medical journal editor, I must list the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The database we compiled lists USA Olympians only, and only those in medal sports, not including demonstration sports. It does not include USA Olympians who were alternates or did not compete, and it does not include the USA competitors in the Arts Competitions from 1912-48. It also does not include Paralympians.

To be listed with a college affiliation, all we needed to know was if the athlete “attended” such a college – this list says nothing about graduation.

We excluded foreign athletes attending US colleges. Many of our US colleges have hosted foreign athletes who have later competed at the Olympics, but we are not including those, because of the original purpose of the database, as described above.

We excluded coaches, trainers, therapists, physicians, and other ancillary personnel who accompany the Olympic teams. As I attended the greatest university in the United States, and have three degrees from Duke (’73 BA, ’84 MD, ’90 Ortho), I would have liked to include Mike Krzyzewski, and other Duke coaches who have worked at the Olympics, to increase our “Olympian” count, but that is not the purpose of this project.

In summary, the database includes USA Olympians only, who competed in medal sports only, and who attended any known college, USA or otherwise, although the vast majority are US colleges. Many colleges have different lists, including foreign athletes, alternates, demo sport athletes, coaches and affiliate personnel, Paralympians, and others. We have no problems with any such lists, but the purpose of our project was to obtain a list of USA Olympic competitors and their college affiliations so we used the inclusion and exclusion criteria as above.

We have used multiple sources. First we used our Olympedia (www.olympedia.org) database, pulling any college affiliations for USA athletes. We also examined our text bios on the USA Olympians on Olympedia and pulled out the colleges mentioned. Then, we used a USOC database from 1990 that lists college affiliations. All USA Media Guides from 1956-2016 were fully examined. We also checked online lists of colleges and their Olympians. We then were fortunate enough to have contact with CoSIDA (College Sports Information Directors of America), via Doug Vance, their Executive Director, and Bill Hancock, Executive Director of the College Football Playoff. Doug contacted his membership and many of them sent us lists of their Olympians. Thanx to Doug and Bill for their help with this project.

Finally, Hilary Evans (@OlyStatman) did what Hilary always does, and better than anybody, which is find things nobody else can. Hilary went thru the entire list and found many missing and obscure affiliations.

The entire database of USA Olympians and their colleges can be found in the attached Excel spreadsheet (USA Olympians Colleges), but let’s look a little at who the leading colleges are.

The most prominent finding is that California colleges have contributed huge numbers of Olympians to the @TeamUSA effort. In fact the four leading schools, in terms of number of athletes, are: 1) Stanford, 2), UCLA, 3), USC, and 4) Cal Berkeley. Here is the top 20 by # of athletes, games attended, and medals won (Games = # of games attended by their athletes):

[table]

College,Athletes,Games,Medals,Rank

Stanford University,289,408,282,1

UCLA,277,394,241,2

Southern Cal,251,357,228,3

U Cal Berkeley,212,283,201,4

Harvard University,210,276,121,5

Yale University,149,187,113,6

University of Michigan,145,189,131,7

University of Minnesota,140,191,68,8

University of Pennsylvania,131,166,71,9

University of Colorado,128,189,27,10

University of Washington,122,159,72,11

University of Wisconsin,121,172,74,=12

Dartmouth University,121,169,40,=12

The Ohio State University,104,147,98,=14

University of Texas,104,144,123,=14

Indiana University,103,133,95,16

Princeton University,102,135,64,17

Cornell University,92,114,47,18

University of North Carolina,89,121,52,19

Columbia University,80,117,59,20

[/table]

If we break this down by state, one of the original purposes of this search, this becomes even more dramatic. California has almost three times as many Olympians attending college there as the next US state, New York. Here are the top 10 states by # of Olympians:

[table]

State,Athletes,Games,Golds,Medals

California,1668,2363,678,1302

New York,559,795,110,239

Massachusetts,456,604,89,257

Pennsylvania,394,497,67,184

Mchigan,313,415,99,219

Colorado,288,431,28,76

Texas,276,364,157,254

Illinois,238,318,44,120

Minnesota,210,293,22,87

Connecticut,205,262,81,153

[/table]

Pretty dominant for California, isn’t it? Of note, athletes from California colleges have almost as many gold medals and medals as the next 9 highest ranking US states.

What about if we look at Summer and Winter? Surely California colleges cannot have the most Winter Olympians, can they? No, they don’t, that honor going to the University of Minnesota. Here are the lists of the top 10 for Summer and Winter USA Olympians:

[table]

Season,College,Athletes,Games,Gold,Medals

Summer,UCLA,280,396,136,243

Summer,Stanford University,280,394,144,275

Summer,Southern Cal,249,352,114,228

Summer,U Cal Berkeley,202,269,124,199

Summer,Harvard University,160,200,36,85

Summer,Yale University,133,170,52,101

Summer,University of Michigan,129,169,71,121

Summer,University of Pennsylvania,127,162,22,70

Summer,University of Washington,115,149,34,70

Summer,University of Texas,104,144,80,123

[/table]

 

[table]

Season,College,Athletes,Games,Gold,Medals

Winter,University of Minnesota,93,122,15,49

Winter,Dartmouth University,79,113,5,22

Winter,University of Colorado,61,91,0,9

Winter,Harvard University,50,76,11,36

Winter,University of Utah,46,83,3,9

Winter,University of Wisconsin,44,73,8,32

Winter,University of Vermont,39,61,1,5

Winter,Boston College,37,51,2,20

Winter,Boston University,32,44,5,22

Winter,Northern Michigan University,31,51,4,31

Winter,Westminster College,29,45,2,5

[/table]

What about by gender? Are there any differences among the colleges USA men and women Olympians have attended? Not really big differences, but here are those top 10 lists:

[table]

Gender,College,Athletes,Games,Gold,Medals

Female,UCLA,119,180,74,131

Female,Stanford University,110,163,70,131

Female,Southern Cal,71,111,38,84

Female,U Cal Berkeley,69,102,49,90

Female,University of North Carolina,58,85,22,33

Female,University of Texas,45,61,29,44

Female,University of Wisconsin,42,61,6,29

Female,University of Florida,38,60,30,52

Female,University of Arizona,37,57,28,51

Female,Harvard University,36,58,7,30

[/table]

 

[table]

Gender,College,Athletes,Games,Gold,Medals

Male,Stanford University,187,255,81,154

Male,Southern Cal,185,252,76,145

Male,Harvard University,183,232,43,100

Male,UCLA,166,223,62,112

Male,U Cal Berkeley,149,189,82,118

Male,Yale University,134,168,53,102

Male,University of Pennsylvania,120,150,19,59

Male,University of Michigan,117,152,66,114

Male,University of Minnesota,111,145,17,46

Male,University of Colorado,97,144,6,21

[/table]

It does get more interesting when we look at sports and years, as many colleges often have certain sports for which they are best known (did I mention Duke and basketball?). Here are the leading 2-3 colleges for each of the sports on the Olympic Program:

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Alpine Skiing,University of Colorado,29,40

Alpine Skiing,Dartmouth University,22,31

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Archery,Arizona State University,5,9

Archery,Texas A&M University,3,7

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Athletics,Southern Cal,87,121

Athletics,UCLA,72,126

Athletics,Stanford University,54,64

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Badminton,Arizona State University,5,7

Badminton,UCLA,4,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Baseball,Stanford University,5,5

Baseball,LSU,4,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Basketball,UCLA,15,15

Basketball,University of Tennessee,12,17

Basketball,University of North Carolina,12,13

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Beach Volleyball,UCLA,13,16

Beach Volleyball,Stanford University,4,7

Beach Volleyball,U Cal Santa Barbara,4,5

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Biathlon,Dartmouth University,12,15

Biathlon,University of Vermont,5,10

Biathlon,Middlebury College,5,6

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Bobsledding,SUNY Plattsburgh,8,9

Bobsledding,Cornell University,5,6

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Boxing,Northern Michigan University,7,7

Boxing,Idaho State University,4,4

Boxing,The Ohio State University,3,3

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Canoeing,University of Maryland,13,20

Canoeing,Cal State Long Beach,7,9

Canoeing,Dartmouth University,7,8

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Cross-Country Skiing,Dartmouth University,17,29

Cross-Country Skiing,University of Vermont,12,21

Cross-Country Skiing,Middlebury College,9,14

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Curling,Bemidji State University,5,6

Curling,University of Wisconsin,4,5

Curling,University of North Dakota,3,3

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Cycling,University of Colorado,13,16

Cycling,Penn State University,4,7

Cycling,University of Arizona,4,6

Cycling,University of Wisconsin,4,5

Cycling,Cal State Northridge,4,4

Cycling,U Cal Berkeley,4,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Diving,The Ohio State University,21,29

Diving,Indiana University,17,22

Diving,Southern Cal,12,18

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Equestrian Events,US Military Academy,19,23

Equestrian Events,University of Pennsylvania,3,10

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Fencing,Columbia University,28,45

Fencing,New York University,25,45

Fencing,University of Pennsylvania,15,25

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Figure Skating,Harvard University,13,24

Figure Skating,Colorado College,8,11

Figure Skating,University of Colorado,7,9

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Football,University of North Carolina,20,31

Football,UCLA,17,22

Football,University of Virginia,16,19

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Freestyle Skiing,University of Utah,11,23

Freestyle Skiing,Westminster College,9,12

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Golf,Harvard University,3,3

Golf,Columbia University,2,2

Golf,University of Georgia,2,2

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Gymnastics,UCLA,30,33

Gymnastics,Penn State University,11,12

Gymnastics,University of Illinois,10,15

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Handball,Adelphi University,7,11

Handball,US Air Force Academy,4,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Hockey,University of North Carolina,17,23

Hockey,Old Dominion University,10,11

Hockey,Princeton University,9,14

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Ice Hockey,University of Minnesota,68,83

Ice Hockey,Boston College,32,42

Ice Hockey,Harvard University,29,41

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Judo,San José State University,15,22

Judo,University of Colorado,6,7

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Luge,University of Montana,5,9

Luge,DeVry University,5,8

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Modern Pentathlon,US Military Academy,22,23

Modern Pentathlon,University of Texas,3,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Nordic Combined,Dartmouth University,7,8

Nordic Combined,University of Denver,6,6

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Rowing,Harvard University,72,94

Rowing,University of Washington,66,80

Rowing,U Cal Berkeley,58,67

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Rugby Football,Stanford University,15,18

Rugby Football,U Cal Berkeley,8,9

Rugby Football,Santa Clara University,5,7

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Sailing,Harvard University,19,20

Sailing,Yale University,12,17

Sailing,Princeton University,10,12

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Shooting,West Virginia University,10,16

Shooting,University of Colorado,7,11

Shooting,Troy University,6,10

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Short-Track Speedskating,Northern Michigan University,19,29

Short-Track Speedskating,University of Colorado,4,6

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Skeleton,SUNY Plattsburgh,2,3

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Ski Jumping,Dartmouth University,6,7

Ski Jumping,University of Vermont,4,6

Ski Jumping,University of Wyoming,4,4

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Snowboarding,Westminster College,5,7

Snowboarding,Colorado Mountain College,3,6

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Softball,UCLA,11,20

Softball,University of Arizona,4,8

Softball,Cal State Fresno,4,7

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Speedskating,University of Wisconsin,11,23

Speedskating,University of Minnesota,10,16

Speedskating,Marquette University,7,15

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Swimming,Stanford University,60,81

Swimming,Southern Cal,59,78

Swimming,University of Texas,51,72

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Synchronized Swimming,The Ohio State University,5,8

Synchronized Swimming,Stanford University,5,7

Synchronized Swimming,DeAnza College,5,5

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Table Tennis,Princeton University,2,2

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Tennis,Stanford University,6,10

Tennis,Harvard University,5,5

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Volleyball,Southern Cal,24,34

Volleyball,UCLA,19,25

Volleyball,Stanford University,17,27

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Water Polo,Stanford University,39,64

Water Polo,UCLA,37,52

Water Polo,Southern Cal,27,35

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Weightlifting,Pikes Peak Community College,4,5

Weightlifting,The Ohio State University,3,6

Weightlifting,University of Illinois,3,6

Weightlifting,Southwestern Louisiana University,3,4

Weightlifting,U Colorado-Colorado Springs,3,3

[/table]

[table]

Sport,College,Athletes,Games

Wrestling,Oklahoma State University,29,37

Wrestling,University of Oklahoma,15,23

Wrestling,Iowa State University,14,15

[/table]

The above are not separated by gender and you can see the female influence in several sports, notably in basketball, where the University of Tennessee ranks highly, and football (soccer), where the University of North Carolina ranks first, both based primarily on their female players.

Certain schools appear frequently on the above lists, as you would expect. Notably, Stanford and UCLA are among the top 3 in 9 sports, while Dartmouth, Harvard, and the University of Colorado are listed in 6 sports.

And here is how the top colleges have changed over the years, looking only at the top USA colleges represented at each Games:

[table]

Season,Year,College,Athletes

Summer,1896,Harvard University,6

Summer,1900,University of Pennsylvania,12

Summer,1904,Christian Brothers’ College St. Louis,11

Summer,,Yale University,11

Summer,1906,Yale University,3

Summer,1908,Cornell University,9

Summer,1912,Cornell University,8

Summer,,Harvard University,8

Summer,1920,US Naval Academy,22

Summer,1924,Stanford University,19

Summer,1928,Southern Cal,13

Summer,1932,Southern Cal,15

Summer,1936,Southern Cal,21

Summer,1948,U Cal Berkeley,14

Summer,,Southern Cal,14

Summer,1952,Southern Cal,17

Summer,1956,Southern Cal,19

Summer,1960,Southern Cal,23

Summer,1964,Southern Cal,26

Summer,1968,UCLA,16

Summer,1972,UCLA,27

Summer,1976,UCLA,31

Summer,1984,UCLA,35

Summer,1984,U Cal Berkeley,16

Summer,1988,UCLA,28

Summer,1992,UCLA,27

Summer,1996,UCLA,35

Summer,2000,UCLA,40

Summer,2004,UCLA,34

Summer,2008,Stanford University,31

Summer,2012,Stanford University,29

Summer,2016,Stanford University,30

[/table]

 

[table]

Season,Year,College,Athletes

Winter,1920,Dartmouth University,2

Winter,1924,Harvard University,2

Winter,1928,Harvard University,3

Winter,1932,Yale University,7

Winter,1936,Dartmouth University,4

Winter,,Harvard University,4

Winter,1948,Dartmouth University,8

Winter,1952,University of Minnesota,9

Winter,1956,University of Minnesota,7

Winter,1960,University of Minnesota,9

Winter,1964,University of Minnesota,13

Winter,1968,University of Minnesota,10

Winter,1972,University of Colorado,11

Winter,1976,University of Wisconsin,9

Winter,1980,University of Minnesota,9

Winter,1984,University of Minnesota,9

Winter,1988,University of Vermont,7

Winter,1992,Dartmouth University,9

Winter,1994,Northern Michigan University,11

Winter,1998,University of Colorado,12

Winter,2002,University of Utah,12

Winter,2006,University of Utah,11

Winter,2010,Westminster College,18

Winter,2014,Westminster College,19

[/table]

There you can see some trends. In the early years of US Olympic participation the Ivy League schools contributed the most Summer Olympians, while since 1924 it has always been a California school.

Finally, one thing is obvious about this analysis – there have been a lot of smart young men and women on @TeamUSA, but we went a bit further. What about graduate schools?

We have that information as well, broken down by type of graduate or professional school, so here we list the top schools by each type, but also the known number of USA Olympians for each type of graduate or professional school.

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Business School,Harvard University,8

Business School,Stanford University,6

Business School,University of Pennsylvania,4

Business School,Totals,52

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Chiropractic School,Cleveland Chiropractic College,2

Chiropractic School,Totals,5

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Dental School,Indiana University,1

Dental School,Loyola University New Orleans,1

Dental School,New York University,1

Dental School,Temple University,1

Dental School,The Ohio State University,1

Dental School,University of the Pacific,1

Dental School,Totals,6

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Graduate School,Columbia University,13

Graduate School,Stanford University,10

Graduate School,The Ohio State University,10

Graduate School,University of Pennsylvania,10

Graduate School,Totals,255

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Law School,Harvard University,11

Law School,Columbia University,4

Law School,Cornell University,3

Law School,Stanford University,3

Law School,U Cal Berkeley,3

Law School,University of Chicago,3

Law School,Southern Cal,3

Law School,Totals,70

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Medical School,Harvard University,4

Medical School,University of Pennsylvania,4

Medical School,Columbia University,3

Medical School,Stanford University,3

Medical School,University of Cincinnati,3

Medical School,Totals,69

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Rhodes Scholar,Oxford University (GBR) (Balliol College),2

Rhodes Scholar,Oxford University (GBR) (Magdalen College),2

Rhodes Scholar,Oxford University (GBR) (St. John’s College),2

Rhodes Scholar,Totals,9

[/table]

[table]

Type,GradProf,Athletes

Veterinary School,University of Pennsylvania,2

Veterinary School,Totals,5

[/table]

Impressive that these tremendous athletes, who spend so much time training and competing, have also excelled academically. As to the Rhodes Scholars, there have been 34 known Rhodes Scholars among all Olympians, with 9 of those coming from the United States. Here is that list:

[table]

Name,NOC,Sport,Rhodes

Bill Bradley,USA,BAS,1965 Rhodes Scholar – Worcester College

John Carleton,USA,CCS/NCO,1922 Rhodes Scholar – Magdalen College

Eddie Eagan,USA,BOB/BOX,1922 Rhodes Scholar – New College

Tom McMillen,USA,BAS,1974 Rhodes Scholar – University College

John Misha Petkevich,USA,FSK,1973 Rhodes Scholar – Magdalen College

Annette Salmeen,USA,SWI,1997 Rhodes Scholar – St. John’s College

Bill Stevenson,USA,ATH,1922 Rhodes Scholar – Balliol College

Norm Taber,USA,ATH,1913 Rhodes Scholar – St. John’s College

Alan Valentine,USA,RUG,1922 Rhodes Scholar – Balliol College

[/table]

So that’s it. Full details can be found in the spreadsheet that lists all USA Olympians and their academic affiliations, which is linked above. Let us know if you see any errors or additions. As we stated, the list can never be complete and almost by necessity, is certainly incomplete.

 

Olympic Costs – Rio 2016 and Future Projections

This is a revision of a post I did last week on Olympic costs, related to the recent announcement of Rio 2016 costs. I withdrew the post when an error was noted in parts of one column. Unfortunately that column affected several others, so I had to re-do the stats. Thanx to Rich Perelman who noted an error on the numbers for LA 1984, which alerted me to the error in that column.

This revision will be some of what I presented last week, but the revision of the data actually revealed some stats that were new to me and could be important in predicting participation figures and Organizing Committee (OCOG) costs at future Olympic Games, so I will discuss those in some detail. This will be somewhat of a long post but I think an important one.

The Rio de Janeiro Organizing Committee announced the final budget figures for the 2016 Olympics, with expenses of $13.1 billion (US). A huge number and well over the original projected expenses predicted during Rio’s candidature – the Oxford Olympics 2016 Study had Rio costs estimated as $4.6 billion. As I’ll discuss further on, candidature projected expenses are usually not close to the final numbers, but perhaps this post can help with that.

So how expensive was Rio relative to other recent Olympics? We’re only going to look at the numbers since the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, which really started the “modern” era (post-television) of Olympic Games. The table below gives the figures for final expenses given by the Organizing Committees in their final reports. More important is to know how these are corrected against inflation (using US dollar inflation from historical data), which is noted in the right-hand column. The numbers below are given in millions (106) of US dollars, with 2000 as the benchmark year, so $1926 = $1,926,000,000. You can see how important the inflation corrections (IC) are. Tokyo 1964 spent $1.926 billion, but in actuality that would be $11.788 billion in 2000 dollars, more expensive in real dollars than any recent Games except Beijing.

[table]

Year,Host City,106$,IC

1964,Tokyo,$1926,$11788

1968,Mexico City,$175,$979

1972,Munich,$612,$2793

1976,Montréal,$1383,$4636

1980,Moscow,$2000,$4841

1984,Los Angeles,$546,$931

1988,Seoul,$4047,$6021

1992,Barcelona,$7000,$8616

1996,Atlanta,$1686,$1849

2000,Sydney,$2279,$2279

2004,Athens,$11600,$10500

2008,Beijing,$30486,$24493

2012,London,$10778,$7988

2016,Rio de Janeiro,$13100,$9212

[/table]

However, Beijing 2008 was a much, much bigger Olympics than Tokyo 1964. Beijing hosted 203 nations, 10,901 athletes, and 302 events; while Tokyo only hosted 93 nations, 5,137 athletes, and 163 events. A huge difference.

The important comparison between Games appears to be to use constant dollars, correcting for inflation, but also to correct for the number of athletes competing, and the number of events held.  You can do a regression analysis and see that both of those factors, as they increase, also increase OCOG costs – I’ll spare you that analysis. More athletes cost more – you have to feed them, house them, and protect them, and some organizing committees also provide travel expenses for some nations’ athletes. More events greatly increase costs because it often means new venues to be built, more security issues for each event, and more facility and personnel costs for each event.

I’ve used this before, but it turns out that the most effective comparison comes when you use the expenses, per athlete, per event, corrected for inflation, which I term EPAECI

EPAECI = expenses / (athletes * events), corrected for inflation

Now let’s see how Rio comes out when we do this comparison.

[table]

Year,Host City,IC,Athletes,Events,EPAECI

1964,Tokyo,$11788,5137,163,$14078

1968,Mexico City,$978,5557,172,$1024

1972,Munich,$2792,7113,195,$2014

1976,Montréal,$4636,6073,198,$3856

1980,Moscow,$4840,5259,203,$4534

1984,Los Angeles,$931,6798,221,$620

1988,Seoul,$6020,8453,237,$3005

1992,Barcelona,$8616,9386,257,$3572

1996,Atlanta,$1848,10340,271,$660

2000,Sydney,$2279,10648,300,$713

2004,Athens,$10499,10561,301,$3303

2008,Beijing,$24493,10901,302,$7440

2012,London,$7988,10519,302,$2515

2016,Rio de Janeiro,$9212,11182,306,$2692

[/table]

The last column is the important one – EPAECI – the statistic of interest, and now Rio 2016 doesn’t look so bad. In fact their EPAECI of $2,692 compares favorably to recent Olympics. Its almost the same as London, and less than Athens 2004, Barcelona 1992, and Seoul 1988. Many of the Games from 1964-2016 had an EPAECI in the $2,500-$3,000 range, and Rio was on the low end of that range. Admittedly the $13.1 billion was well above original projections, but below I’ll show how we can likely actually predict what the final number might be, based only on two relatively known factors.

Here is what the EPAECI looks like graphically:

A couple things stand out from this comparison. Tokyo 1964 is by far the most expensive Olympic Games of all-time (summer only – Sochi crushes it including the Winter Games). In fact, Rome 1960 had an EPAECI of $571 so the cost inflation at Tokyo 1964 is an Olympic record of sorts. Secondly, Beijing 2008 is the second most expensive Olympics ever, at a $7,440 EPAECI, which most people probably suspected. Thirdly, Rio now does not look like quite so bad in that chart, does it?

Further, 9 Olympics from the cohort of 14 were fairly similar – there were the expensive outliers of Tokyo 1964 and Beijing 2008, and the parsimonious outliers of Los Angeles 1984, Atlanta 1996, and Sydney 2000, but there are not major differences between the other 9 Olympics Games in term of EPAECI.

One might say that Montreal 1976 and Moscow 1980 were over the historical average, but I would argue that they were not. Both Olympics had boycotts – 1976 by African nations opposed to a recent New Zealand rugby team visiting South Africa in the era of apartheid; and 1980 by a US-led boycott over the recent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Only 92 nations competed at Montreal, and 80 at Moscow, versus 121 at Munich in 1972. About 30 nations boycotted Montreal, and circa 60 boycotted Moscow – it’s not easy to be precise about those numbers. So there should have been about 122 nations at Montreal, and 140 at Moscow, and Montreal and Moscow planned for that many nations, and the requisite increased number of athletes, and spent money based on that planning. If you assume constant numbers of athletes per NOC, Montreal would have had 8,053 athletes and Moscow 9,203. Using those numbers the EPAECI for Montreal comes in at $2,908, and Moscow at $2,591, well within the historical $2,500-$3,000 range.

Finally, three Olympics stand out for their penury – Los Angeles 1984, Atlanta 1996, and Sydney 2000. What do they have in common? None of them were government-run Olympics, with all of them run as businesses that had to balance the books – and they did. These Olympics prove it can be done, but not by increasing costs at every corner, and trying to out-do the previous OCOG, or keeping up with the Joneses. Peter Ueberroth started this policy with Los Angeles 1984. Not always well liked while he was doing it, he should be applauded for showing how it can be done.

Of note, using the arguments above for Montreal and Moscow, the smaller 1984 boycott also makes Los Angeles 1984 look even better, as their EPAECI could have been as low as $560, a number not seen since Melbourne 1956.

However, OCOGs cannot keep costs low if they are forced to add more and more athletes and more and more events, and that is a problem. Rio had 306 events. Tokyo 2020 will likely have 339 events, with the recently announced addition of 15 events, and addition of 5 new sports (18 events) – baseball/softball, karate, skateboarding, sport climbing, and surfing.

The onus, therefore, is on the IOC to decrease costs by minimizing the number of events and keeping the number of athletes as low as possible. The Olympic 2000 Commission, formed ad hoc after the 1999 Olympic Bribery Scandal, recommended maxima of 10,000 athletes, and 300 events. No Summer Olympics since 2000 has achieved either goal.

As I studied the data in looking carefully at the EPAECI, I realized that there is a way to predict how many athletes will compete at an Olympic Games, and it’s very accurate. Since we have reached the 21st century era of 200+ nations competing, and circa 300 events, the following formula has accurately predicted (within 1.5% in each case), the number of athletes that will compete at the Olympics:

Athletes = # Nations * # Events * 0.174

So since the IOC wants every nation to compete, the only effective way to keep down the number of athletes competing is to limit the number of events. Unfortunately, it seems to be going the other way. The only other factor that can be changed in the above formula is the 0.174, which would require having fewer athletes per nation, probably limiting the number of athletes allowed per event, or having stricter qualifying standards.

Now given that we can predict how many athletes compete, it dawned on me that we can also reasonably predict the costs of future Olympic Games. These are not the costs projected by Bid Committees, but actual costs that the OCOG will announce in their final reports. As Dick Pound once said, “Some of the greatest fiction can be found in bid committee books.”

We saw above that most (9/14) Olympics (since 1964) have had an EPAECI in the $2,500-$3,000 range, and I just showed how can we predict the number of athletes that will compete. The number of NOCs competing is now going to be pretty constant at 206 – there are just not many nations left in the world that could compete. If we know the number of events, since we can use NOC = 206, we can use our EPAECI range to estimate final Olympic costs. Let’s see how this works out for 2020-2028, comparing them to 2008-2016. Here we have to project US dollar inflation in the future, and I have used 2.5%/year, which is close to the historical mean.

We have to pick an EPAECI # for Tokyo 2020, Paris 2024, and Los Angeles 2028 (assuming that is how it works out). Tokyo 2020 seems to be overrunning cost estimates, and its previous Olympics set a very poor example, so I will use EPAECI = $3,000 for 2020, on the high end. I will assume Paris 2024 can come in on the low side, so will use EPAECI = $2,500. For Los Angeles 2028, I will go very low, since LA84 was only $620 (or $560 – see above), and Atlanta 1996 was only $660. It appears US-based Olympics (and Sydney 2000), run as businesses, can contain costs. I will not go that low for 2028 but will choose EPAECI = $1,000, well below historical average, but above recent US-Games precedents. In the below table, I have also projected slight increases in number of events for 2024 and 2028. Here are the predicted costs:

[table]

Year,Host,NOCs,Athlts,Evnts,EPAECI,106$,IC

2008,Beijing,203,10901,302,$7440,$30486,$24493

2012,London,203,10519,302,$2515,$10778,$7988

2016,Rio,206,11182,306,$2692,$13100,$9212

2020,Tokyo,206,12150,339,$3000,$19395,$12357

2024,Paris,206,12260,342,$2500,$18161,$10482

2028,LA,206,12360,345,$1000,$8155,$4266

[/table]

The last 2 columns show the projections, first in actual dollars, and then corrected for inflation. Paris 2024 would come in cheaper than Tokyo 2020, but actually more expensive than London or Rio, and that is because of the increased number of events.

Here are what the figures look like, graphically, first in actual and predicted dollars, and then corrected for inflation:

You can see in the above chart how good LA 2028 would look, cost-wise, and also that Paris 2024 will likely come in relatively more expensive than Rio 2016, due to the increased number of events.

Los Angeles 2028 could be the least expensive Olympics since Sydney 2000, at just over $8.1 billion. Since previous US-based Olympics, and Sydney, had EPAECI much lower than $1,000, that estimate for Los Angeles may well be high. Further, I suspect that number for LA 2028 is high, because all of its venues are already built, as opposed to most OCOGs.

There are several take home points from this analysis. 1) Olympic costs are related to the number of athletes competing and the number of events contested, two parameters that are largely outside of OCOG control, but actually controlled by IOC decisions; 2) The IOC can only control these Olympic costs by limiting the number of events contested, although they are going in the other direction, or by limiting the number of athletes per event and per nation, either by having less athletes per nation in each event, or with stricter qualifying standards; 3) Rio 2016 exceeded its predicted costs by a significant factor, but it was not relatively more expensive than recent Games; 4) This highlights that early predictions of Olympic costs by OCOGs are invariably low, and should be looked at with a jaundiced eye; 5) The future number of potential athletes competing can be predicted fairly accurately with a simple formula; 6) Using the predicted number of athletes competing, reasonable estimates can be made of potential Olympic costs using the EPAECI factor. The EPAECI-predicted costs will almost certainly exceed the predicted costs announced by bid committees and OCOGs; and finally, 7) Olympic costs have been well-controlled in the past 50 years by OCOGs that have not been government-run but run as businesses with a careful eye on the bottom line. It can be done.

Olympic Program Metastasis

The IOC today announced multiple changes to the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Programme, adding numerous mixed events, several “street” events (such as 3×3 hoops), and trying to equalize the program by genders. One thing this will do, however, is greatly increase the size of the 2020 Olympics, something the IOC has been trying to ward off.

In 2000, in the wake of the Olympic Bribery Scandal, the IOC formed the IOC 2000 Commission to look at ways to revise the Olympic Movement and Games. Two of the recommendations were to limit the size of the Summer Olympics to 300 events and 10,000 athletes. Rio 2016 had 306 events and 11,182 athletes, and no Olympics since 2000 has had less than 10,500 competitors.

The IOC announced that there will now be 321 events at Tokyo, and by limiting athlete quotas in many sports, will decrease the number of competitors by 285 athletes. However, they did not take into account the 5 new proposed sports, which have been assumed to be a fait accompli – baseball/softball, karate, skateboarding, sport climbing, and surfing. If one looks at the IOC’s own publication on this – see  https://stillmed.olympic.org/media/Document%20Library/OlympicOrg/…/Olympic-Pr…  – that would add another 18 events, bringing the total to 339 events for Tokyo 2020. Further, the IOC is projecting 474 additional athletes in the new sports, which more than eliminates the savings from the new sports quotas. This would bring the projected Rio total to about 11,500 athletes, and I would not be surprised to see it reach close to 12,000.

Here is how the Summer Olympic program has expanded since WW2:

[table]

Events,Men,Wom,Mix,Tot,Increase,Men%,Women%

1948,112,19,5,136,5.4%,86.0%,17.6%

1952,117,25,7,149,9.6%,83.2%,21.5%

1956,116,26,9,151,1.3%,82.8%,23.2%

1960,113,29,8,150,-0.7%,80.7%,24.7%

1964,119,33,11,163,8.7%,79.8%,27.0%

1968,115,39,18,172,5.5%,77.3%,33.1%

1972,132,43,20,195,13.4%,77.9%,32.3%

1976,130,49,19,198,1.5%,75.3%,34.3%

1980,134,50,19,203,2.5%,75.4%,34.0%

1984,144,62,15,221,8.9%,71.9%,34.8%

1988,151,72,14,237,7.2%,69.6%,36.3%

1992,159,86,12,257,8.4%,66.5%,38.1%

1996,163,97,11,271,5.4%,64.2%,39.9%

2000,168,120,12,300,10.7%,60.0%,44.0%

2004,166,125,10,301,0.3%,58.5%,44.9%

2008,165,127,10,302,0.3%,57.9%,45.4%

2012,162,132,8,302,0.0%,56.3%,46.4%

2016,161,136,9,306,1.3%,55.6%,47.4%

2020,156,147,18,321,4.9%,54.2%,51.4%

2020Plus,165,156,18,339,10.8%,54.0%,51.3%

[/table]

2020Plus are the numbers assuming the 5 new sports are accepted as proposed. That would come to 339 events and a 10.8% increase over the size of the Olympic Program. Since 1948 that will be the second biggest increase, after a 13.4% increase for Munich 1972. It is also about the same as Sydney 2000, which increased by 10.7%. The Munich increase was driven by a few new sports (archery, handball, and judo returned to the program after missing 1968), and new weight classes for men in weightlifting and wrestling. The Sydney increase was from a few new sports / disciplines (trampoline, triathlon, taekwondo), but mainly from adding women’s sports and events – modern pentathlon, water polo, weightlifting.

If you look at the table you will see the IOC is approaching gender equity with the program. Women will be able to compete in 51.3% of the 2020Plus Program, while men will be eligible in 54.0% of the Program (it adds to > 100% because of mixed events).

That is admirable and there are certainly no complaints about it. It follows Bach’s proposals in Agenda 2020 to have an event-based program instead of a sport-based one, and to achieve gender equity. But with a proposed 339 events, and maybe approaching 12,000 athletes, one has to wonder when the current era is one in which cities are refusing to bid for Olympics because they have become too big and too expensive. It may require further IOC legerdemain to reverse that trend.

Oldest Living Olympians

Adolph Kiefer died this morning (5 May) at his home in Wadsworth, Illinois. He was 1 month shy of 99-years-old. Kiefer was the world’s greatest backstroker in the 1930s and won a gold medal at the 1936 Olympics in the 100 backstroke. At his death he was the seond oldest living Olympic medalist and gold medalist.

Our OlyMADMen group has one remarkable guy, Canadian Paul, actually known as Paul Tchir, whose hobby is studying the ages of Olympians and determining the oldest living this or that. He has a private Wikipedia page where he tracks these – see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Canadian_Paul/Olympics.

For the record here are the current oldest Olympian records, courtesy of Canadian Paul’s webpage.

Oldest Living Olympian / US Olympian

John Lysak           16 Aug 1914   None      USA               1936 WLT

 

Oldest Living Olympic Medalist

Clara Marangoni    13 Nov 1915   Silver      ITA                1928 GYM

 

Oldest Living Olympic Gold Medalist

Durward Knowles  02 Nov 1917   Gold       BAH/GBR       Multiple SAI

 

Oldest Living US Olympic Medalist

John Russell         02 Feb 1920   Bronze    USA               1948 EQU

 

Oldest Living US Olympic Gold Medalist

Cliff Bourland        01 Jan 1921    Gold       USA               1948 ATH

 

For the record, besides Lysak, there is one other US Olympian still alive from the 1936 Berlin Olympics – Iris Cummings, a swimmer who was born 21 December 1920. Canadian Paul lists 9 Olympians in all still alive from those Games. There are no known Olympians alive from the 1932 Olympics, although Clara Marangoni (above) competed at the 1928 Amsterdam Olympics.